Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt copied from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
April 20th refers to local time at the launch site.
Note: if there is a successful launch or vehicle destruction prior to the 20th, I will resolve this market NO immediately.
This week:
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-883c2b0587e9
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-0becacaa1884
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1bf5c0002512
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-bd3fb4f7bd63 (you are here)
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-a5458089285c
Weekend:
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-035a6a8cb650
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-d4d54a56a663
Next week:
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-d3841fc5bf50
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-623e7aec9a99
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-02945bdee2d7
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-69d0bd609254
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-af11b75d3277
1,000
3.00New markets:
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-3ad8843e94db
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-7c3df59ceab5
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-fbe722e8728c
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1a1f8e83089a
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-f675db35214e
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa
@chrisjbillington Similar market in a different format.
https://manifold.markets/Akzzz123/will-the-next-starship-orbital-laun?r=QWt6enoxMjM
@Akzzz123 Similar but not quite the same - my markets are just for whether there will be an attempt, not for whether it gets off the ground, which I think are two separate questions it's interesting to have!
@chrisjbillington Mine's for attempt as well but resolves for any time before the end date.
@Akzzz123 Ah, apologies. Yours is for an attempt, @JoshuaWilkes' appears to be for a launch, though I'm not 100% sure.
FAA advisory now listing all dates from Apr 21st to Apr 28th inclusive as backup dates
Saturday the 22nd was new so new market for that date:
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-035a6a8cb650
@chrisjbillington Looks like the TFR for the 20th vanished, then reappeared with a 35m longer window. In the meantime, TFRs for the 23rd, 24th and 25th popped up.
@PeterWildeford I bet it down to 2%. Bought far too much so could only sell a little bit without moving the probability implausibly high. Am unsure whether I should consider that a bad call given how things looked an hour ago, or just bad luck.
@chrisjbillington 2% is very low but it's also almost unheard of for rockets to fly ahead of schedule. It's SpaceX so I guess we should never have extreme confidences
@chrisjbillington Berger is slow, TFR has been removed over 40 minutes ago :p
I happened to spot discussion on Reddit. But the ~90% it touched was way too high anyway, I shoulda put my limit order lower than 85 I think!
@Mqrius I was too aggressive trying to sell my NO shares off, which was helping push it up. Should've just kept 'em if the probability looked right.
