Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt copied from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
April 20th refers to local time at the launch site.
Note: if there is a successful launch or vehicle destruction prior to the 20th, I will resolve this market NO immediately.
This week:
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-883c2b0587e9
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-0becacaa1884
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1bf5c0002512
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-bd3fb4f7bd63 (you are here)
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-a5458089285c
Weekend:
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-035a6a8cb650
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-d4d54a56a663
Next week:
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-d3841fc5bf50
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-623e7aec9a99
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-02945bdee2d7
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-69d0bd609254
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-af11b75d3277
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,196 | |
| 2 | Ṁ615 | |
| 3 | Ṁ491 | |
| 4 | Ṁ488 | |
| 5 | Ṁ484 |
New markets:
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-3ad8843e94db
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-7c3df59ceab5
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-fbe722e8728c
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1a1f8e83089a
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-f675db35214e
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa
@chrisjbillington Similar market in a different format.
https://manifold.markets/Akzzz123/will-the-next-starship-orbital-laun?r=QWt6enoxMjM
@Akzzz123 and in a third!
https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/what-month-will-the-second-orbital?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz
@Akzzz123 Similar but not quite the same - my markets are just for whether there will be an attempt, not for whether it gets off the ground, which I think are two separate questions it's interesting to have!
@chrisjbillington Mine's for attempt as well but resolves for any time before the end date.
@Akzzz123 Ah, apologies. Yours is for an attempt, @JoshuaWilkes' appears to be for a launch, though I'm not 100% sure.
FAA advisory now listing all dates from Apr 21st to Apr 28th inclusive as backup dates
Saturday the 22nd was new so new market for that date:
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-035a6a8cb650
@chrisjbillington Looks like the TFR for the 20th vanished, then reappeared with a 35m longer window. In the meantime, TFRs for the 23rd, 24th and 25th popped up.
@PeterWildeford I bet it down to 2%. Bought far too much so could only sell a little bit without moving the probability implausibly high. Am unsure whether I should consider that a bad call given how things looked an hour ago, or just bad luck.
@chrisjbillington 2% is very low but it's also almost unheard of for rockets to fly ahead of schedule. It's SpaceX so I guess we should never have extreme confidences
@chrisjbillington Berger is slow, TFR has been removed over 40 minutes ago :p
I happened to spot discussion on Reddit. But the ~90% it touched was way too high anyway, I shoulda put my limit order lower than 85 I think!
@Mqrius I was too aggressive trying to sell my NO shares off, which was helping push it up. Should've just kept 'em if the probability looked right.
Now if only Nathan would resolve his markets then I would've been able to buy down more of it 🙈
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