Will a Starship orbital flight test occur by the end of November?
26
269
540
resolved Dec 1
Resolved
NO

Elon Musk says it "seems highly likely".

For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.

Edit: To add a more objective criterion, I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.

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bought Ṁ100 of NO

They haven't done a full 33 engine static fire yet, and they don't have any road closures scheduled this week. The next road closure is NET November 28. As far as we know they don't have an FAA launch license yet either.

Not looking good.