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Resolves NO

This month, maybe, next month, definitely.

A marine notice has been posted for November 6th for rocket launching operations near Boca Chica Beach!

https://www.navcen.uscg.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/lnms/lnm0843g2023.pdf

They have done this before for 8 September onwards and earlier dates so it is hard to know whether this time it is because SpaceX believe they may get permission by then or it is just routine easy to cancel if not needed and file another one. Still even with latter interpretation, it may indicate launch is not likely to be possible before November 6th.

There is also things like

https://twitter.com/wapodavenport/status/1716985374633837050

"SpaceX progressing while I hear the FAA and Fish and Wildlife are as well. Next launch attempt coming before too long, I’d think."

Anyone got different thoughts on these or other indicators?

New unlinked multiple-choice market for all of 2024:

Are you all factoring in a shutdown affecting FAA launch license approval and FWS review? From market probabilities it looks like the government shutdown will last a couple weeks and given they said that the FAA hopes to have a license at the end of October, this much seems less likely now.

https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/how-long-will-the-2023-us-governmen#jwOPF0ahqLvxoqOId1Ng

How long will the 2023 US Government Shutdown last?

With current funding set to expire on Saturday 30th September, Manifold users currently think there's something like a 75% chance of a US government shutdown: @/cash/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd How long willl the shutdown last? There were shutdowns which have lasted for a single day in the 1980s, but recent years have seen some longer shutdowns. The longest have been: 35 days - 2018-2019 (President Trump, Republican House) 21 days - 1995-1996 (President Clinton, Republican House) 16 days - 2013 (President Obama, Republican House) How long will any shutdown which starts this year last? Resolution criterea: As with the example shutdowns mentioned above, this will count the first and last day of any government shutdown. So a shutdown which starts on 1st October and ends on 7th October will be counted as lasting for 7 day. This includes any shutdown which starts in 2023. It is possible that a short term funding resultion is passed in time to avoid a shutdown this week but there is a US government shutdown once it lapses later this year. This market only relates to the first US government shutdown of 2023. If there are multiple shutdowns, this will be resolved based on how quickly the first one ends. If a shutdown begins in 2023 and rolls into 2024, this market will count the total length of that shutdown including the days in 2024.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-18/spacex-s-starship-still-needs-fish-and-wildlife-review-to-start#xj4y7vzkg

FWS review could take 30-135 days that hasn't even started yet... Remember it was thought September might be possible?

@parhizj why would they stack ready to launch if they are waiting for some degenerate government dog catchers, or whatever, to drag their heels for months?

@AlQuinn As I speculated before: pressure tactics or politicking (Musk is now Republican/favors less regulations). I would be surprised if this was bad forecasting on their part but the tweets Elon made in response to that article hint otherwise.

@AlQuinn cope harder

@NGK oh noes, might lose M10 on this question!

@AlQuinn I can literally predict all of your positions on markets just by the market name.

@NGK I truly doubt your claim, but yes, it's true that I've made correlated bets across similar markets based on my view they were systemically mispriced here (and you can ignore my M10 bets because I do that just as a way to follow news and discussion on questions that interest me). But if you think my bets are wrong you know what you can do about that, right?

dont be fooled by musks tweets - guy loves to talk more than anything, some have called it his ruin!

@conradgetty the main problem is the FAA, which for some reason wants to degrade the US space program to the point we are all speaking Mandarin in our reeducation camps within 30 years.

@AlQuinn Ha. When the current problem facing your rocket development program is a few-weeks delay on your second flight due to bureaucracy around some (fairly serious: e.g. the FTS) mishaps in the first, you are doing extremely well.

The main problem will continue to be that space is very hard. Barring major safety incidents, after the next flight I don't think regulatory delays will be near the top of the list of bottlenecks for Starship development.

I feel like betting against starship launching is always an okay bet at this stage

@NGK in general, yes, but it's literally sitting on the pad ready to go. The only hold up is FAA approval, and they've indicated their report could be ready as early as October 2. This is more a bet on whether SpaceX can address all the things in that report within a month.

@JohnKossa I don't even think it's that - SpaceX say they have addressed all the things (they wrote the list of things). We're betting on FAA approval and anything else unanticipated.

@JohnKossa There’s been “pending” FAA approval periods of much longer than a month.

@JohnKossa FAA and now some Fish and Chips Agency which is allowed to drag its leg for half an eternity and then some.