Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in October 2023?
148
closes Nov 1
33%
chance

Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.

For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.

I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.

The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.

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Sort by:
parhizj avatar
JRPbought Ṁ200 of NO

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-18/spacex-s-starship-still-needs-fish-and-wildlife-review-to-start#xj4y7vzkg

FWS review could take 30-135 days that hasn't even started yet... Remember it was thought September might be possible?

6 replies
AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinnpredicts YES

@parhizj why would they stack ready to launch if they are waiting for some degenerate government dog catchers, or whatever, to drag their heels for months?

parhizj avatar
JRPpredicts NO

@AlQuinn As I speculated before: pressure tactics or politicking (Musk is now Republican/favors less regulations). I would be surprised if this was bad forecasting on their part but the tweets Elon made in response to that article hint otherwise.

NGK avatar
NGK

@AlQuinn cope harder

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinnpredicts YES

@NGK oh noes, might lose M10 on this question!

NGK avatar
NGK

@AlQuinn I can literally predict all of your positions on markets just by the market name.

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinnpredicts YES

@NGK I truly doubt your claim, but yes, it's true that I've made correlated bets across similar markets based on my view they were systemically mispriced here (and you can ignore my M10 bets because I do that just as a way to follow news and discussion on questions that interest me). But if you think my bets are wrong you know what you can do about that, right?

conradgetty avatar
Conrad Gettypredicts NO

dont be fooled by musks tweets - guy loves to talk more than anything, some have called it his ruin!

2 replies
AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinnpredicts YES

@conradgetty the main problem is the FAA, which for some reason wants to degrade the US space program to the point we are all speaking Mandarin in our reeducation camps within 30 years.

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicts NO

@AlQuinn Ha. When the current problem facing your rocket development program is a few-weeks delay on your second flight due to bureaucracy around some (fairly serious: e.g. the FTS) mishaps in the first, you are doing extremely well.

The main problem will continue to be that space is very hard. Barring major safety incidents, after the next flight I don't think regulatory delays will be near the top of the list of bottlenecks for Starship development.

NGK avatar
NGKbought Ṁ167 of NO

I feel like betting against starship launching is always an okay bet at this stage

4 replies
JohnKossa avatar
John Kossabought Ṁ40 of YES

@NGK in general, yes, but it's literally sitting on the pad ready to go. The only hold up is FAA approval, and they've indicated their report could be ready as early as October 2. This is more a bet on whether SpaceX can address all the things in that report within a month.

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicts NO

@JohnKossa I don't even think it's that - SpaceX say they have addressed all the things (they wrote the list of things). We're betting on FAA approval and anything else unanticipated.

NGK avatar
NGK

@JohnKossa There’s been “pending” FAA approval periods of much longer than a month.

ICRainbow avatar
IC Rainbowpredicts YES

@JohnKossa FAA and now some Fish and Chips Agency which is allowed to drag its leg for half an eternity and then some.