Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in October 2023?
214
2.6k
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resolved Nov 1
Resolved
NO

Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.

For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.

I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.

The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.

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predicted NO

Resolves NO

This month, maybe, next month, definitely.

bought Ṁ964 of NO

A marine notice has been posted for November 6th for rocket launching operations near Boca Chica Beach!

https://www.navcen.uscg.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/lnms/lnm0843g2023.pdf

They have done this before for 8 September onwards and earlier dates so it is hard to know whether this time it is because SpaceX believe they may get permission by then or it is just routine easy to cancel if not needed and file another one. Still even with latter interpretation, it may indicate launch is not likely to be possible before November 6th.

There is also things like

https://twitter.com/wapodavenport/status/1716985374633837050

"SpaceX progressing while I hear the FAA and Fish and Wildlife are as well. Next launch attempt coming before too long, I’d think."

Anyone got different thoughts on these or other indicators?

predicted YES

New unlinked multiple-choice market for all of 2024:

bought Ṁ50 of YES
predicted NO

Are you all factoring in a shutdown affecting FAA launch license approval and FWS review? From market probabilities it looks like the government shutdown will last a couple weeks and given they said that the FAA hopes to have a license at the end of October, this much seems less likely now.

https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/how-long-will-the-2023-us-governmen#jwOPF0ahqLvxoqOId1Ng

bought Ṁ200 of NO

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-18/spacex-s-starship-still-needs-fish-and-wildlife-review-to-start#xj4y7vzkg

FWS review could take 30-135 days that hasn't even started yet... Remember it was thought September might be possible?

predicted YES

@parhizj why would they stack ready to launch if they are waiting for some degenerate government dog catchers, or whatever, to drag their heels for months?

predicted NO

@AlQuinn As I speculated before: pressure tactics or politicking (Musk is now Republican/favors less regulations). I would be surprised if this was bad forecasting on their part but the tweets Elon made in response to that article hint otherwise.

@AlQuinn cope harder

predicted YES

@NGK oh noes, might lose M10 on this question!

@AlQuinn I can literally predict all of your positions on markets just by the market name.

predicted YES

@NGK I truly doubt your claim, but yes, it's true that I've made correlated bets across similar markets based on my view they were systemically mispriced here (and you can ignore my M10 bets because I do that just as a way to follow news and discussion on questions that interest me). But if you think my bets are wrong you know what you can do about that, right?

predicted NO

dont be fooled by musks tweets - guy loves to talk more than anything, some have called it his ruin!

predicted YES

@conradgetty the main problem is the FAA, which for some reason wants to degrade the US space program to the point we are all speaking Mandarin in our reeducation camps within 30 years.

predicted NO

@AlQuinn Ha. When the current problem facing your rocket development program is a few-weeks delay on your second flight due to bureaucracy around some (fairly serious: e.g. the FTS) mishaps in the first, you are doing extremely well.

The main problem will continue to be that space is very hard. Barring major safety incidents, after the next flight I don't think regulatory delays will be near the top of the list of bottlenecks for Starship development.

bought Ṁ167 of NO

I feel like betting against starship launching is always an okay bet at this stage

bought Ṁ40 of YES

@NGK in general, yes, but it's literally sitting on the pad ready to go. The only hold up is FAA approval, and they've indicated their report could be ready as early as October 2. This is more a bet on whether SpaceX can address all the things in that report within a month.

predicted NO

@JohnKossa I don't even think it's that - SpaceX say they have addressed all the things (they wrote the list of things). We're betting on FAA approval and anything else unanticipated.

@JohnKossa There’s been “pending” FAA approval periods of much longer than a month.

predicted YES

@JohnKossa FAA and now some Fish and Chips Agency which is allowed to drag its leg for half an eternity and then some.