Before 2028, will anyone train a GPT-4-level model in a minute?
42
1kṀ6355
2028
14%
chance

In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner claims:

In 2027, a leading AI lab will be able to train a GPT-4-level model in a minute.

Resolves YES if by the end of 2027, a credible claim is made that:

  • Someone trained a GPT-4-level model in a minute.

    • or 1440 GPT-4-level models in a day, to account for parallelism

  • GPT-4-level will be evaluated using the same benchmarks as in the GPT-4 Technical Report Table 2.

    • I will use my best judgement if mostly the same benchmarks are reported.

  • "A minute" and "a day" refer to wall-clock times.

This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):

Other markets about Leopold's predictions:

Technology
AI
Technical AI Timelines
Situational Awareness
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Results for round 4 of ML Perf are in. GPT-3 was trained on 11k H100s to a certain perplexity threshold in 4 minutes. Not clear how the threshold compares to "true" GPT-3 training, but it's getting fast!

Edited title to match language of other [LA:SA] markets. (No change to meaning.)

From what starting point?

@AsptheWyvern From scratch

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