"Manhattan Project" for AGI before 2029?
Basic
23
3.9k
2029
13%
chance

In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts a US-government led project to build AGI in 2027/2028:

Somewhere around 26/27 or so, the mood in Washington will become somber. People will start to viscerally feel what is happening; they will be scared. From the halls of the Pentagon to the backroom Congressional briefings will ring the obvious question, the question on everybody’s minds: do we need an AGI Manhattan Project?
...
by late 26/27/28 it will be underway.

This market resolves YES if all of the following are true about a US government project:

  • "The core AGI research team (a few hundred researchers) will move to a secure location". For this market, we will use "at least 200 researchers" in place of "a few hundred researchers".

  • The project is "primarily in the domain of national security".

  • A "trillion-dollar [AI] cluster will be built". For this resolution criterion, there will need to be an outlay of a trillion dollars for compute in the project before market close.

This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):

Other markets about Leopold's predictions:

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Maybe Ilya is already running it 🙃