$100B AI training cluster before 2029?
45
1kṀ9923
2029
83%
chance

In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner estimates that the largest training clusters will cost hundreds of billions of dollars around 2028.

Clarifications:

  • $100B worth of computers and associated data center infrastructure (e.g. building, cooling, networking; does not include the cost of the power plant)

  • Computers must be networked together and training one model. They do not need to synchronize weights at each gradient step.

  • Value of data centers will be estimated with reasonable depreciation. So, $100B of purchase price in TPUv1s would not count.

  • Nominal dollars.

  • So, if the nominal value of the datacenter being used to train a model less depreciation ever crosses $100B, this market resolves YES.

This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):

Other markets about Leopold's predictions:

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