![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FTossup%2Fkr32ohrw1f.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
1GW AI training run before 2027?
Basic
4
Ṁ7882027
40%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that the largest AI training clusters will consume 1GW of electricity in ~2026.
This market resolves YES if a training run of a single AI model consumes 1GW+ of power sustained through most of the training run. This power cost includes overhead to run the data center, such as cooling.
This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):
Other markets about Leopold's predictions:
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
Related questions
Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035?
52% chance
10GW AI training run before 2029?
50% chance
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
57% chance
$1T AI training cluster before 2031?
25% chance
How many billion dollar AI training runs will occur in 2024?
Will an AI be able to play a type of video game that it wasn't trained on before 2026?
60% chance
100GW AI training run before 2031?
17% chance
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
22% chance
Will the US cap AI training runs after this candidate wins the presidency? (Before 2026)