1GW AI training run before 2027? | Manifold

1GW AI training run before 2027?

10

1kṀ1815

2027

61%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that the largest AI training clusters will consume 1GW of electricity in ~2026.

This market resolves YES if a training run of a single AI model consumes 1GW+ of power sustained through most of the training run. This power cost includes overhead to run the data center, such as cooling.

This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):

Other markets about Leopold's predictions:

/ZviMowshowitz/will-we-develop-leopolds-dropin-rem

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The training run has to complete before January 1st 2027 ?

Before January 1st 2027, we need to be confident that it's happening, that it has been consuming 1GW of power so far, and that it will continue to do so for the majority of the training run.

Ok, but not that it's necessarily finished?

That's right.

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