Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?
227
1kṀ110k2027
70%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if we have public knowledge by 12/24/27 of a company or other entity having created something that roughly equates to the 'drop-in remote worker' described in the paper Situational Awareness, or is otherwise similarly or more capable. It need not be available to the public, if it is being used only internally.
Resolves to NO if this is not the case.
If Leopold Aschenbrenner says this did or did not happen I will abide by his observation. If he does not do so, I will use my best judgment.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?
67% chance
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?
27% chance
Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2030?
6% chance
Will OpenAI hire an AI welfare researcher before the end of 2025?
19% chance
Will Google DeepMind hire an AI welfare researcher before the end of 2025?
11% chance
AI "devops" #1: Will there be an AI that can onboard as a dev by 2028?
62% chance
Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?
18% chance
Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
26% chance