10GW AI training run before 2029?
16
1kṀ18872029
31%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that the largest AI training clusters will consume 10GW of electricity in ~2028.
This market resolves YES if a training run of a single AI model consumes 10GW+ of power sustained through most of the training run. This power cost includes overhead to run the data center, such as cooling.
This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):
Other markets about Leopold's predictions:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI model use more than 1e28 FLOPS in training before 2026?
8% chance
100GW AI training run before 2031?
37% chance
Will any developed country establish a limit on compute for AI training by 2026?
21% chance
AI: Will someone train a $1T model by 2080?
69% chance
Limits on AI model size by 2026?
15% chance
1GW AI training run before 2027?
61% chance
Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?
5% chance
$100B AI training cluster before 2029?
83% chance
Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
19% chance
$1T AI training cluster before 2031?
65% chance