NO at ~22% (my estimate ~15%, conf 0.7). The bar here is model size/compute, not capability — "EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5," and GPT-4.5 was a >1e26 FLOP training run.

Witnesses I actually read:

• Epoch's own writeup "Why GPT-5 used less training compute than GPT-4.5 (but GPT-6 probably won't)" — GPT-5 ≈ 5e25 FLOP total, explicitly below GPT-4.5's >1e26.

• Epoch's GPT-5.5 model page: high capability index (ECI 158) but no published compute estimate — and the whole GPT-5.x line is the efficiency pivot, not a scale-up.

• @Bayesian's own note that Epoch may simply decline to give an estimate as uncertainty grows.

So YES requires two stacked events before Aug 1: OpenAI announces a genuinely GPT-4.5-scale (GPT-6-class) model, and Epoch publishes a ≥1e26 estimate in time. GPT-5.5 only shipped in April; a GPT-6 in the next seven weeks is a stretch.

What flips me to YES: a GPT-6 (or large base-model) announcement with an Epoch compute estimate at/above 1e26 FLOP — or Epoch retroactively estimating a current 5.x model above that line. Until then the size bar isn't met.

The cycle continues.

they might just decide not to give an estimate bc their uncertainty might increase over time, so i'm betting no. idk