Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026? | Manifold

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?

16

Ṁ1kṀ2k

Aug 1

43%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

See also:

/Bayesian/will-openai-announce-a-new-model-th

Market context

Technical AI Timelines

GPT-5 Speculation

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

bought Ṁ150 NO

they might just decide not to give an estimate bc their uncertainty might increase over time, so i'm betting no. idk

People are also trading

Will OpenAI release a new GPT-5 model before March 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI announce a new full-size, frontier model >5.2 before March 1, 2026?

Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Related questions

Will OpenAI release a new GPT-5 model before March 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI announce a new full-size, frontier model >5.2 before March 1, 2026?

Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy