@traders The polls are out!

• /TheAllMemeingEye/resolution-poll-firstpastthepost-wh

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• /TheAllMemeingEye/resolution-poll-firstpastthepost-wh-p5uq06Zs65

@TheAllMemeingEye when do you expect a poll to be conducted

@Jack1 approximately 43 minutes ago, with a margin of error of 59 minutes

Poll time

@Jack1 With multi-select and ranked choice polls now available, maybe ranked choice would be a good, well, choice. Maybe still using the following instead of the raw ranked choice points: "Ranks 1 through 10 will earn 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 points respectively."

Deontology is the part I feel I can predict least well.

Consequentialism will either be an inventor of a pivotal technology, a billionaire effective altruist, or an influential philosopher.

In a vaguer way, I feel like we probably all have roughly similar concepts of virtue, and the winner will be somebody who seems decent, kind, and wholesome.

But deontology begs the question of "whose deontology". Somebody who obeys the rules of their own religion/country? Somebody who obeys the rules of the voters' religion/country/internet subculture? As a consequentialist, the rules I respect are ones that lead to good consequences, so I'm liable to judge "the best person assuming deontology" in a somewhat similar way as "the best person assuming consequentialism". (Related market: /Fion/will-the-winner-of-best-living-huma )

I know you can say that this goes for virtue and consequences as well ("whose virtues?", "whose idea of good consequences?") but somehow it feels more acute to me for deontology.

@Fion also, consequentialism seems to me to be the only one that is almost unbounded on the "good" end. If I have two basically decent, rules-following people, how do I tell them apart? But somebody who funded a million bed nets can easily be beaten by somebody who funded ten million.

@Fion deontological theories tend to be universalist, I don’t see them as more vulnerable to your objection than other theories. Indeed, you’d be hard pressed to find more universalist than Kant, but even Ross or contemporary deontologists are fairly insensitive to cultural norms.

On the other hand, there are plenty of substantive disagreements about the nature of the good that one ought to promote under consequentialism, how to measure e.g. utility or welfare, and how different individuals or policies can promote it in different circumstances, especially under uncertainty (a problem that plagues consequentialism more than deontology or virtue theory). A ‘good’ person in one context can be profoundly misguided in others if they ignore relevant factors. That’s why many consequentialists recommend non-consequentialist decision procedures for most mortals.

Virtue theory does seem more susceptible to cultural variation, but it makes the recognition of virtuous people easier if you’re attuned to their culture’s norms. But even then, virtue theorists tend to settle on fairly universal virtues, so I’m not convinced. I’ll also add that cardinal virtues often include justice, temperance, courage, and wisdom (and one could add honesty, integrity, and so on), and I’m not convinced some of the top contenders overall do particularly well on these counts—some criminally underrated examples of courage in this list.

@TheAllMemeingEye same question as with Paul Graham, except that I am genuinely at a loss unless this is Scott Alexander, the author of Astral Codex Ten blog

@JussiVilleHeiskanen yes that is correct, I don't include his full name due to his past NYT doxxing

@Damin in the interest of researching this person, perhaps specify "which " Paul Graham , after some research guess is the programmer and spouse of Jessica Livingston

@JussiVilleHeiskanen ye, I can't edit it but that's him

What about a poll "Best Living Human [Ethical Philosophy] trolley problem" when we know the name of each winner?

PS: It seems Sora gives a very low chance the trolley will go over the consequalism winner

@MiguelLM idk, his left leg could get pretty fucked up.

Also, I give a ~100% chance that train is getting derailed

@MiguelLM

new vishnu avatar confirmed?!?

@TheAllMemeingEye one hand for each philosophy 😆

Related market:

What about Imam Muhammad bin al-Hasan, who, according to the Twelver Shia Islam, never died but has merely been divinely occluded from the world since the tenth century, and will one day return with Isa to defeat Al-Masih ad-Dajjal?

@TiredCliche the historical and biological evidence is that, like Jesus of Nazareth, his body almost certainly died many years ago. By default I must personally be convinced that they are indeed alive to be eligible, with that only being overridable by a Manifold poll asking if they're alive with over 30 total votes cast and over 2/3 of votes saying yes (excluding bribes and alts)

Could I add "The most recently born human baby as of market close?" Or ineligible?

@TiredCliche they must be specifically named in a way such that we can find out info about them, ideally with a Wikipedia article or similar

@AmmonLam why he is suddenly ineligible? He is a man, a living son of God . In his original human's body

@elephant FYI I didn't make it ineligible

@samoel answered in previous comment

I believe Parfit passed away somewhat recently.

@Yakushi12345 Oops. True. Missed the living clause somehow

@Yakushi12345 2017