Will philosophers accept or lean towards virtue ethics once a consensus on normative ethics is reached? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2051

Will philosophers accept or lean towards virtue ethics once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

27%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves if PhilPapers or a similarly reputable survey of philosophers reports consistent results that 90% or more (which I will use as consensus) of philosophers surveyed accept or lean towards virtue ethics as the preferred theory of normative ethics.

The market close date will be continuously extended if consensus is not reached.

2020 survey data from the PhilPapers survey for reference:

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Nico Dis predicting NO at 27%

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Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Will philosophers accept or lean towards deontology once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

What opinion will future language models converge to, on what Einstein would have thought of Many-Worlds?

Is Haborth's Conjecture true?

Will the first clone of a genius demonstrate similar intelligence?

Are libertarianism and autistic traits correlated?

How will a blank-slate AI first prove the infinitude of primes?