
Carson Gale
closes Jan 1, 2051
27%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves if PhilPapers or a similarly reputable survey of philosophers reports consistent results that 90% or more (which I will use as consensus) of philosophers surveyed accept or lean towards virtue ethics as the preferred theory of normative ethics.
The market close date will be continuously extended if consensus is not reached.
2020 survey data from the PhilPapers survey for reference:


Carson Gale
Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Carson Gale
Will philosophers accept or lean towards deontology once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?
Tim P
What opinion will future language models converge to, on what Einstein would have thought of Many-Worlds?

Bolton Bailey
Is Haborth's Conjecture true?
Isaac King
Will the first clone of a genius demonstrate similar intelligence?
Robin Green
Are libertarianism and autistic traits correlated?

Bolton Bailey
How will a blank-slate AI first prove the infinitude of primes?

Carson Gale
Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Carson Gale
Will philosophers accept or lean towards deontology once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?
Tim P
What opinion will future language models converge to, on what Einstein would have thought of Many-Worlds?

Bolton Bailey
Is Haborth's Conjecture true?
Isaac King
Will the first clone of a genius demonstrate similar intelligence?
Robin Green
Are libertarianism and autistic traits correlated?

Bolton Bailey
How will a blank-slate AI first prove the infinitude of primes?