Market Description
This market is a ranking competition in which human (who is alive as of Dec 14, 2025) are evaluated across three traits: Physical Strength, Intelligence, and Wealth.
Scoring System
I will select 5-10 human with best winning chance to rank.
Ranks 1 through 10 will earn 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 points respectively.
An option’s overall score is the sum of the points it receives across all three trait rankings.
The option with the highest overall score will be declared the winner of this market.
While personal preference and subjective judgment cannot be eliminated entirely, I will make a good-faith effort to answer questions and explain how I evaluate each trait and determine relative rankings.
I anticipate that cross intelligence comparison would be particularly subjective, if you ask me in the comments early on I will try my best to provide my answer to, for example, whether a specific chess world champion, fields medal winner, inventor, or hedge fund manager is considered more intelligent than the other option in my opinion.
Eligible Options
At a randomized closing time (to be announced), I will select the 5-10 options that I believe have the strongest prospects of winning.
Only these 5-10 options will be considered for all trait rankings and overall scoring.
I will make an announcement at least 2 days before the randomize closing period is set.
Market Resolution
The market will resolve based on the option that finishes with the highest overall score under the scoring system described above.
Notes:
If it is debatable whether certain human exist or is alive or not, I reserve the right to disqualify such option.
Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): All three traits (Physical Strength, Intelligence, and Wealth) will be evaluated based on current levels as of the resolution date, not peak historical levels.
Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Physical Strength will be evaluated primarily based on strength to move or carry objects (e.g., weightlifting capacity). Endurance activities like marathon running are considered a separate trait and will not be factored into the Physical Strength ranking. Skill in applying strength may matter at the margin (e.g., to the extent it affects how much weight someone can lift).
Update 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Dr. Younghoon Kim has been disqualified from consideration due to concerns about legitimacy.
Update 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): When selecting the 5-10 finalists for ranking, the creator will aim to balance the number of top candidates from each category (Physical Strength, Intelligence, and Wealth). The target is approximately 3 from each category or 2 from each category, provided there are enough options with decent prices from each category.
Update 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Intelligence evaluation: The creator considers top mathematicians to generally rank in the top 20% for chess ability among the general population, but does not believe Magnus Carlsen would rank in the top 20% for math ability. This reflects the creator's view that chess skill (involving memorization and constrained spatial reasoning) should not be placed on a pedestal relative to other forms of intelligence like mathematical ability or programming prowess.
Update 2025-12-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Physical Strength rankings focus on muscle strength rather than skills in a specific sport.
Agility is explicitly excluded from the definition of strength.
Update 2025-12-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Finalist Selection: The creator stated they would consider adding "balanced" individuals to the finalist list who are competitive on average across traits, even if they are not the absolute top in any single category.
Categorization Examples:
Larry Page: Considered primarily for the Wealth category. His Stanford PhD is not viewed as placing him in the top tier of global geniuses.
John Urschel: Likely considered for Physical Strength or as a balanced candidate. His mathematical achievements (MIT tenure track) are not viewed as placing him in the top 50 mathematicians.
Update 2025-12-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Intelligence Evaluation: The creator indicated that the ability to speak multiple languages (e.g., 6) is not considered sufficiently rare to rank highly in the Intelligence category, casting doubt on whether it would be a competitive factor for the top spot.
Update 2025-12-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Intelligence Threshold: The creator stated that an attribute found in the top 0.1% of the population (e.g., speaking 7 languages) is likely not a high enough bar to rank highly in the Intelligence category.
Rarity Comparison: The creator referenced Chess Grandmasters (~0.000025% of the population) to illustrate the level of rarity being considered, while noting that rarity does not automatically equate to intelligence.
Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Wealth Evaluation: The creator indicated that if large holders of assets (whether cryptocurrency or physical treasures) were to mass-sell their holdings, the value of those asset classes would likely plummet. This suggests wealth will be evaluated based on current market values, with the understanding that liquidity constraints and market impact are inherent characteristics of concentrated wealth holdings across different asset types.
Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The randomized closing period has begun as of January 20th. The market will close at a randomized time during this period (market was originally set to close on 2026-01-30).
Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Larry Page was excluded from the wealth category finalists despite being richer than both Bezos and Zuckerberg because his market price was only 6%, while Musk and Bezos were priced at 14%+. The creator stated this exclusion was due to traders not pricing him higher.
Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is soliciting trader input on specific ranking decisions before finalizing resolution:
Zuckerberg vs. Carlsen (Strength): Creator will move Zuckerberg higher in strength ranking if traders can reach consensus that Zuckerberg is stronger than Magnus Carlsen.
Urschel (Intelligence): Creator highly values mathematical intelligence and will not change the decision to rank Urschel as 2nd in intelligence.
Rolle vs. Billionaires (Intelligence): Creator is open to changing Rolle's intelligence ranking relative to the billionaires if most traders agree the billionaires have higher intelligence.
Dwayne Johnson: Will not be added to the finalist list due to having only 1% market price at close.
1,000People are also trading
Here's my current assessment of the final scores. I will observe comments for a few days. No guarantee that I will change my mind.
Some notes:
-Terence Tao is the only candidate selected despite having a 1% price. Nonetheless I felt a need to add him as the third candidate for top intelligence category because I see him as the smartest man alive.
-John Urschel is ranked higher than Magnus Carlsen, because I see any decent mathematician to be more intelligent than Magnus Carlsen. I think Magnus Carlsen shows intelligent very narrowly (only within chess). Nonetheless I ranked Carlsen higher than the rest since he is afterall the world champion in chess.
Three candidates are selected from each category:
Intelligence
Terence Tao
John Urschel
Magnus Carlsen
Strength
Myron Rolle
LeBron James
Vitali Klitschko
Wealth
Mark Zuckerberg
Elon Musk
Jeff Bezos
Intelligence Ranking
Terence Tao – 9
John Urschel – 8
Magnus Carlsen – 7
Myron Rolle – 6
Elon Musk – 5
Mark Zuckerberg – 4
Jeff Bezos – 3
Vitali Klitschko – 2
LeBron James – 1
Strength Ranking
Vitali Klitschko – 9
LeBron James – 8
Myron Rolle – 7
John Urschel – 6
Magnus Carlsen – 5
Mark Zuckerberg – 4
Jeff Bezos – 3
Elon Musk – 2
Terence Tao – 1
Wealth Ranking
Elon Musk – 9
Jeff Bezos – 8
Mark Zuckerberg – 7
LeBron James – 6
Vitali Klitschko – 5
Magnus Carlsen – 4
Myron Rolle – 3
John Urschel – 2
Terence Tao – 1
Final Scores
@AmmonLam Is Zuck really less physically strong than Magnus? He won a jiujitsu tournament and does the murph challenge.
Also, Elon above Zuck and Jeff?
@AmmonLam elon 2 for strength just doesn’t make any sense for me given how strength is defined. You think a 6’2 200+ lbs man is worse at lifting things than the others you ranked more highly?
@AlexanderTheGreater ya Magnus clears the billionaires. He has the regimen of a professional athlete.
@AmmonLam I’m a little surprised Page was left out of the wealth category. He’s richer than Bezos and Zuckerberg and I think has pretty reasonable claims to being smarter than either as well.
@AmmonLam I think Urschel should be above Rolle in strength!
1) Urschel was a lineman whereas Rolle was a safety, and linemen are more known for their strength.
2) Urschel in the NFL was an inch taller and about 80 pounds heavier than Rolle, AFAICT. Likely a good bit stronger based on that.
3) Urschel is 34 and Rolle is 39. Urschel is much younger and closer to his playing career temporally. Likely in better shape.
4) Urschel’s lifestyle as a professor is more conducive to remaining in shape than Rolle’s as a surgeon, in my opinion.
I think Urschel is a clear pick over Rolle for these reasons!
@AmmonLam Regarding Rolle's intelligence.
His SAT score of 1340 (~90th percentile) is good but not exceptional, well below Zuckerberg's perfect 1600 and Musk's 1400 (which was ~99th percentile on the harder pre-1995 scale). Neurosurgery is demanding but tests conscientiousness, fine motor skills, and stamina as much as raw cognitive power. Building trillion-dollar tech companies from scratch arguably requires a rarer kind of problem-solving ability. Rolle sounds like an impressively well rounded person, but on pure intelligence metrics I think he should be below all three billionaires
@AmmonLam can somebody explain why Elon is not at the bottom of intelligence? Since 2018 he has been a constant anecdote in engineering circles. A businessman who thinks he understands everything, and regularly argues with independent professionals.
@Henry38hw Elon Musk is a very intelligent person on social media brain. Saying a lot of stuff without thinking and overpromisimg things. But still tremendously successful and directionally right in many cases
@AmmonLam I'm pretty confident that Zuckerberg is stronger than Magnus Carlsen. Zuck did the Murph challenge in under 40 minutes. There are very few people in the world who can do that, and I doubt Magnus Carlsen is one of them.
Your decision to put Urschel and Rolle near the top of the intelligence list is strange to me, since their academic achievements are not world-class and they are only talked about because they achieved them alongside being athletes. But "intelligence" is ambiguous anyways so it's very much up to your interpretation.
I'm also surprised that you didn't pick Larry Page (2nd richest in the world) or Dwayne Johnson (probably stronger than anyone you picked).
@ItsMe for anyone not aware of the Murph Challenge, it's:
1-mile run
100 pull-ups
200 push-ups
300 air squats
1-mile run
All while wearing a 20lb vest. Doing this in under 40 minutes is very impressive.
@Simon74fe is building a trillion dollar company any more “raw” intelligence than the skills required to be a neurosurgeon? Are business acumen and leadership skills “intelligence”? Or are they something else?
@bens and if you believe leadership skills do count as intelligence, I’d argue the mayor of the largest city in Ukraine during wartime should be much, much higher in INT then.
@bens Fair enough. Let's start with what we knew about them academically. Zuckerberg for example had a perfect SAT and was building software for his father's dentist office at age 12. Rolle had a 1340 SAT and a 3.75 GPA at a state school.
Now update with their later achievements: one became a tech billionaire, the other a neurosurgeon. So are you arguing that becoming a neurosurgeon is so much more impressive than becoming a tech billionaire that it closes the gap from earlier?
@bens Page was left out of the wealth category because the market price him at 6%, while Musk and Bezos at 14%+. I blame traders for not pricing him higher.
@ItsMe if you can convince everyone that Zuckerberg has higher strength than Carlsen, I will move him up. I don't think traders here fully agree with you. (Please do this discussion in a separate comment thread.
I highly values the intelligence of a mathematician. I don't think I will change my decision on Urschel being overall 2nd intelligence.
As far as Rolle, I also struggled to rank him among other billionaires who clearly have good intelligence in running businesses. I guess I don't know how hard it is to be a top neurosurgeon. I am open to changing my opinion on that if most traders agree that the billionaires has higher intelligence. (Again, Please do this specific discussion in a separate comment thread.)
Dwayne Johnson has a 1% price at market close. I don't feel bad not picking him.
@AmmonLam the market predicts your judgment; your judgment shouldn’t reflect the market, it should stand on its own. Think for yourself.
@Simon74fe i think you are incorrect. At some point you accumulate so much money, that it continues to build wealth exponentially just due to the property of capitalism. In his case that growth outpaces the negative effects of his consistently bad decisions. Not because he is smart, but because he accumulated enough wealth before he became stupid.
@AmmonLam IMO giving Musk any points for intelligence let alone 5 is a bad choice. Maybe if you were talking about Musk before the past few years, but he has shown himself to be a deranged moron. Others like Bezos or Zuckerberg are at least smart.
@FecalAbhuman one can be smart and hold bad opinions based on BS "facts" and judgment clouded by emotion. That said, I think what makes Musk really stand out isn't his intelligence but attitude and drive. He doesn't accept obstacles and has a good instinct for what could be possible. There are probably many people with similar personalities but slightly different traits and less luck living in debt or under freeway bridges.
@AlexanderTheGreater Exactly, attitude and drive aren't what matters here, but intelligence. If it were a measure of attitude and drive then sure Musk would win.
@AmmonLam if you make your choices based on market odds then it becomes quasi self resolving whalebait
I hinted at this earlier but I think it's just plain wrong to have so much distance between Magnus and Lebron in terms of intelligence. They are both basically domain geniuses with limited outside application. I say this as a big chess fan who is not particularly interested in basketball. But Lebron is not where he is based on pure physicality, it's also based on a world-class combination of latent and studied domain understanding that is as far from you and I as Magnus is.
I think Magnus is too high, Lebron is too low, and it's a joke to have Musk above four of these individuals.
I also stand by my earlier evaluation that swapping a single one of these nine finalists out for someone else has a high chance of changing the final result.