🗳️Who would Manifold vote for over both Trump AND Biden in 1-on-1 presidential elections? [ADD RESPONSES]
8.3k
2025
94%
Scott Alexander
85%
Julia Galef
81%
Michelle Obama
80%
A randomly selected active Manifold user
78%
Paul Christiano
76%
Magnus Carlsen
75%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
74%
Manifold Joshua
74%
William Mc Askill
74%
Peter Singer
71%
Andrew Wiles
71%
Gretchen Whitmer
68%
Randall Munroe
66%
Gordon Ramsay
64%
Emmanuel Macron
63%
Aella
59%
Gavin Newsom
59%
Ursula von der Leyen

Must be a REAL LIVING PERSON that the majority of Manifold users think can defeat both Biden in a 1-1 election, and Trump in a 1-1 election.

Will be resolved by a poll for each option to decide if they'd win the mock election(s)

Inspired by @GG 's market: /GG/is-there-anyone-who-could-defeat-bi

Get Ṁ600 play money
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sold Ṁ40 Answer #17a9b284a8a4 NO

I am selling my investment before the value of Mana is decreased to a tenth of its current value on May 1 2024.

No clue where this one will land

Scott Alexander doesn't even understand correlation vs. causation and supply curve shifts vs. movement along a supply curve.

@Shkeonk Could you elaborate?

thinking of instantly disqualifying any candidate that lost their poll election vs trump if i did it already, since that should logically follow. wyt

@strutheo By N/A-ing them or by resolving them NO ?

He’s a real living person so he qualifies. That was easy to establish thanks to the fact that

You know the rules, and so do I

@Mich certainly eligible, forget the citizenship

@strutheo Knew you wouldn’t let me down

@strutheo do you plan doing separate polls for beating Trump and beating Biden, or only a poll with a question like « would you vote for X in a 1-1 election both if against Trump and if against Biden » ?

@Mich ill combine them into one poll, still figuring out exact wording , probably like ' would you vote for this person in a 1-1 vs biden, AND a 1-1 vs trump'

Pros for Manifold: Very rationally and scientifically minded, extremely dedicated to his ethical code, prominent in Effective Altruism movement, good writer

Cons for Manifold: His moral circle is so beyond the Overton Window that typical users might find his conclusions too extreme or even unhinged e.g. his agnosticism on whether climate change is good or bad due to effects on wild invertebrate suffering

bought Ṁ5 Answer #d369e1fbf740 YES

Why is Hillary trading so high while Bernie and AOC are trading so low? I thought Manifold had a strong academic and thus leftist bias? Also isn't Harris basically just Biden but younger and more competent, yet for some reason she's trading really low too?

@TheAllMemeingEye def anti trump but i wouldnt call the userbase 'leftist' on a whole

bought Ṁ5 Answer #d15fd89ecb9a NO

@strutheo Guess I better short Lula then lol

@strutheo tbh the anti-Trump leaning is so strong this is basically just a 'who would win against Biden' market haha

@TheAllMemeingEye Harris isn't particularly competent (her presidential campaign crashed and burned mostly because she's a terrible politician, and rumors say the biden admin stopped trying to give her stuff to manage because she can't actually handle stuff well). And Bernie/AOC are probably too far left even for the average manifoldian.

@ShakedKoplewitz Lmao Bernie/AOC are centrist by European standards, but I get your point, Manifold is mostly Bay Area / NYC

@ShakedKoplewitz Why was Harris chosen for Biden's VP if she's so incompetent? Surely there are also competent POC centrist politicians he could've chosen instead if that's so?

@TheAllMemeingEye despite what you see on paper, i def get the sense ppl do not like her, hard to pinpoint exactly why. true for both my dem friends and rep friends.

@TheAllMemeingEye Biden backed himself into a corner promising to nominate a woman while also feeling pressured to nominate a Black candidate. This more or less narrowed the field to her and Susan Rice. It was felt that Rice's Benghazi history was a liability (fairly or not) and besides that, nepotism may have played a role owing to Harris's prior friendship with Biden's deceased son.

@HarrisonNathan harris was friends with bidens son?? what lol (i didnt know this)

@ShakedKoplewitz AOC is quite brilliant but certainly far to the left of the average Manifolder (including me).

@TheAllMemeingEye They are not "centrist by european standards". They're still pretty far-left (the amounts they advocate spending on their programs are way higher than anything any european country spends).

yea i dont get this 'central by europe standards' meme americans use so much. europe def has just as many conservative people as america. maybe they only mean it when theyre talking about tax/healthcare and not social issues

@TheAllMemeingEye DSA supporters like to imagine that they are within the norm of liberal European politics, but this isn't really true. Bernie Sanders, for example, often compared his views to the Danish system, but his opinion that "billionaires shouldn't exist" is not a mainstream view in Denmark. AOC's advocacy of modern monetary theory and extreme spending programs, likewise. These are really straight socialist views, which are left-wing in any country.

@HarrisonNathan AOC has honestly gotten a lot better in recent years, but when she was starting out she was saying legit crackpot things. ("The reason why unemployment is so low is because everyone is working two or three jobs.") She still slips up from time to time, but by and large she's learned when to shut up and listen. She might make a good president or speaker in 10, 20, 30 years. But she's not even slightly ready now.

Also, re: "centrist in Europe", let me just remind everyone that Europe went through like a decade and a half of austerity in the wake of 2008, while the US had two massive rounds of stimulus for '08 and for Covid. Centrist in Europe is a more racist Paul Ryan who really likes healthcare. C'mon now.

@TheAllMemeingEye I would add and vote Edgeedgelord Pete, but I'm too cheap.

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