"Positive" in whatever sense it's interpreted by the individual. Could be capabilities, safety, adoption, whatever. I'll run the poll in January of 2040.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Other, followed by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Demis Hassabis are most likely. See the market for live updates (31 traders, as of Jul 22, 2026).

In 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century?

Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?

Will AI wipe out Manifold by 2030?

8% chance

At the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

71% chance

At the beginning of 2040, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

69% chance

At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

73% chance

At the beginning of 2029, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

77% chance

At the beginning of 2035, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

73% chance

At the beginning of 2028, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

71% chance

An AI is trustworthy-ish on Manifold by 2030?

46% chance

Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?

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