The market will resolve as ‘Yes’ for the individual who officially becomes President of Russia and remains in the position for at least one consecutive year from the date of their official start date. The successor is defined as the person who is next to hold the office after Vladimir Putin, regardless of the method of succession. The resolution will be based on confirmation from official Russian government announcements.
Background
I saw the following tweet by Paul Graham which states that one possibility for the war to end in Ukraine is for Putin to die and his successor to withdraw. People replied to Paul saying that all successors are more aggressive than Putin which made me wonder who the successor will be.
... Putin dies and his successor (who may have hastened the process, in the Russian tradition) withdraws from Ukraine.
😂 in the Russian tradition, nice observation.