What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold until Election Day?
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This question will resolve to NO on November 8, 2022.
This exists as a baseline to calibrate other election markets trading at extreme probabilities.
H/T @ZviMowshowitz for this format
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With the title here being explicit and you having lots of followers, I think it may make sense to calibrate this off of a randomly chosen market where, for one reason or another, there's general agreement there's a 0% chance of it happening (like https://manifold.markets/StephenF2P/will-adobe-acquire-figma-this-year for example, which is currently at 6% despite multiple top commenters saying it's impossible)
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