Election Derivatives: What will Trump's Manifold odds be on May 1, 2024?
24
197
Ṁ3.4KṀ1.2K
resolved May 2
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%95%
46-47.9%
0.1%
<39%
0.1%
39-42.9%
0.2%
43-45.9%
3%
48-49.9%
1.1%
50-51.9%
0.4%
52-53.9%
0.2%
54-56.9%
0.1%
57-60.9%
0.1%
>61%
This derivatives market will be evaluated by the average price of the Donald Trump yes over the 24 hours from 12:00am to 11:59pm on May 1, 2024, eastern time, of the 2024 US Presidential Election candidate market on Manifold created by @Jack.
If that market is removed or otherwise broken, an equivalent market at the top of the US Politics page will be used, or another market I announce.
Daily average is used to increase the cost of market manipulation.
Get Ṁ200 play money
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ304 | |
2 | Ṁ267 | |
3 | Ṁ128 | |
4 | Ṁ101 | |
5 | Ṁ65 |
Related questions
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
46% chance
Will Donald Trump win 2024 presidential election?
46% chance
Will Donald Trump be the winner of the 2024 Presidental Election?
43% chance
Will a Manifold user show up in the same picture as Donald Trump before the end of 2024?
37% chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Election?
47% chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US presidential election?
47% chance
Will Trump be elected in 2024?
46% chance
How will a plurality of Manifold vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028?
29% chance