Election Derivatives: What will Trump's Manifold odds be on May 1, 2024?
Basic
24
αΉ3.4kresolved May 2
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%95%
46-47.9%
0.1%
<39%
0.1%
39-42.9%
0.2%
43-45.9%
3%
48-49.9%
1.1%
50-51.9%
0.4%
52-53.9%
0.2%
54-56.9%
0.1%
57-60.9%
0.1%
>61%
This derivatives market will be evaluated by the average price of the Donald Trump yes over the 24 hours from 12:00am to 11:59pm on May 1, 2024, eastern time, of the 2024 US Presidential Election candidate market on Manifold created by @Jack.
If that market is removed or otherwise broken, an equivalent market at the top of the US Politics page will be used, or another market I announce.
Daily average is used to increase the cost of market manipulation.
Get αΉ600 play money
π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ304 | |
| 2 | αΉ267 | |
| 3 | αΉ128 | |
| 4 | αΉ101 | |
| 5 | αΉ65 |
Related questions
Related questions
Election Derivatives: What will Trump's Manifold odds be the day before the election?
In what month will Trump's odds of victory on the biggest Manifold market go below 50%?
Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?
44% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
63% chance
In which months will Trump's odds of winning be sustained above 50%?
Will Trump's presidential odds drop below 50% on Polymarket by November 1?
55% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
51% chance
Open answer: How many electoral votes will Trump* win in 2024?
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
42% chance
If Trump is elected president, will Manifold think he made a serious attempt to remain in charge after 4 years are up?
46% chance