On the Monday before the election, what probability of victory Manifold will think Joe Biden has?
4.5k
Nov 5
4%
0-20%
13%
20-40%
62%
40-60%
18%
60-80%
3%
80-100%

This market will resolve to the probability in the previous day to the election of Biden's probability of winning. This market is a successor to /MP/on-the-monday-before-the-election-w and /MP/on-the-monday-before-the-election-w-ae2b1e80eb2e

The fields are [0,20%), [20%,40%)...

I may close this market to 0-20% early if the main market is resolved to NO ahead of time, because Biden isn't running or unable to run.

I won't bet

I'll use a average throughout the day of the following market (São Paulo time). I reserve myself in the right of changing the original market, if I think there are other markets with significantly more volume.

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Idk, 40-60% at 60% seems ultra duper cheap.

@MP I don't even know what would have to happen (other than death) to have a different result.

@jack picked some free alpha

opened a Ṁ100 20-40% YES at 10% order

@MP if the election was held tomorrow his odds would definitely be below 40%

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The best website there is to predict election.

Is this market a symptom of manifold's liberal bias, is this market rationally reflecting manifold's liberal bias, or is 20-40% @ 5% probability just cheap?

bought Ṁ15 of 20-40% YES

@MP I think the prevailing assumption is that if the DNC suspects biden's chances are poor they just won;t nominate him, but this increasingly looks like faulty reasoning so I've reversed my position.

New related markets about the primaries just dropped!

Manifold has /NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n , which means there is 13% probability he isn't in the ticket.

Btw, it's curious how the splited markets /MP/on-the-monday-before-the-election-w and /MP/on-the-monday-before-the-election-w-ae2b1e80eb2e don't seem to trade consistently with the other 3 odds, as I suspected

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