On the Monday before the election, what probability of victory Manifold will think Joe Biden has?
209
4.5kṀ61kresolved Jul 21
100%97%
0-20%
0.7%
20-40%
1.4%
40-60%
0.4%
60-80%
0.2%
80-100%
This market will resolve to the probability in the previous day to the election of Biden's probability of winning. This market is a successor to /MP/on-the-monday-before-the-election-w and /MP/on-the-monday-before-the-election-w-ae2b1e80eb2e
The fields are [0,20%), [20%,40%)...
I may close this market to 0-20% early if the main market is resolved to NO ahead of time, because Biden isn't running or unable to run.
I won't bet
I'll use a average throughout the day of the following market (São Paulo time). I reserve myself in the right of changing the original market, if I think there are other markets with significantly more volume.
Related markets:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,434 | |
| 2 | Ṁ2,263 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,263 | |
| 4 | Ṁ967 | |
| 5 | Ṁ790 |