This market will resolve to the probability in the previous day to the election of Biden's probability of winning. This market is a successor to /MP/on-the-monday-before-the-election-w and /MP/on-the-monday-before-the-election-w-ae2b1e80eb2e
The fields are [0,20%), [20%,40%)...
I may close this market to 0-20% early if the main market is resolved to NO ahead of time, because Biden isn't running or unable to run.
I won't bet
I'll use a average throughout the day of the following market (São Paulo time). I reserve myself in the right of changing the original market, if I think there are other markets with significantly more volume.
Related markets:
Related questions
Is this market a symptom of manifold's liberal bias, is this market rationally reflecting manifold's liberal bias, or is 20-40% @ 5% probability just cheap?
@MP I think the prevailing assumption is that if the DNC suspects biden's chances are poor they just won;t nominate him, but this increasingly looks like faulty reasoning so I've reversed my position.
Manifold has /NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n , which means there is 13% probability he isn't in the ticket.
Btw, it's curious how the splited markets /MP/on-the-monday-before-the-election-w and /MP/on-the-monday-before-the-election-w-ae2b1e80eb2e don't seem to trade consistently with the other 3 odds, as I suspected