On the Monday before the election, what probability of victory Manifold will think Joe Biden has?
209
4.5kṀ61k
resolved Jul 21
100%97%
0-20%
0.7%
20-40%
1.4%
40-60%
0.4%
60-80%
0.2%
80-100%

This market will resolve to the probability in the previous day to the election of Biden's probability of winning. This market is a successor to /MP/on-the-monday-before-the-election-w and /MP/on-the-monday-before-the-election-w-ae2b1e80eb2e

The fields are [0,20%), [20%,40%)...

I may close this market to 0-20% early if the main market is resolved to NO ahead of time, because Biden isn't running or unable to run.

I won't bet

I'll use a average throughout the day of the following market (São Paulo time). I reserve myself in the right of changing the original market, if I think there are other markets with significantly more volume.

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