Will a major newspaper cite/reference a Manifold prediction market by the 2024 election?

US Politics•Politics•Manifold•Manifold Features•Manifold Business Future

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Nov 6

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Resolves YES if I see proof that a major newspaper used/referenced a Manifold market in their coverage of a topic between now and the 2024 election.

Major newspapers for the purpose of this market are the NYT, the WSJ, and the Washington Post. Must be in print/online as a normal article (not a podcast, video, etc).

The newspaper must cite the actual prediction numbers to some extent (they cannot simply say that a market exists for it) to bolster their coverage. In other words, it should be used like fivethirtyeight or other statistical predictions/poll aggregators have been used in the past, broadly speaking.

Obviously I will not be reading every single article so if you see it, you may have to bring my attention to it.

I will NOT bet in this market.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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We're getting close:

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/presidential-election-2024-betting-websites-15f0fc94

bought Ṁ40 of YES

Seems like two mainstream journalists are seriously considering this, and Manifold is offering to make it happen. https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Hard-Fork-Podcast-Notes-dc1fcf61932842bd98a8a7a5e320d6f4

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

Does it need to be an article about the election?

Feels like that's what you might be going for but you never actually say that.

@Daniel_MC Nope! Could be about anything, as long as it uses the market’s odds in its coverage

@BenjaminShindel The election end date is just an arbitrary end date that also conveniently contains all coverage about the election (which tends to bring out coverage of odds/predictions)