This question will resolve to NO on November 6, 2024.
This exists as a baseline for other election predictions, especially ones that cannot happen - this market should trade at the same value as whether e.g. Hillary Clinton will run for president, or whether Trump will be president prior to the next inauguration day.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ450 | |
| 2 | Ṁ260 | |
| 3 | Ṁ163 | |
| 4 | Ṁ74 | |
| 5 | Ṁ61 |
Other expiration dates:
12/31/2024: https://manifold.markets/Lorxus/what-is-the-riskfree-interest-rate-2fe30d91de52?r=SGFycmlzb25OYXRoYW4
Multiple longer dates: https://manifold.markets/HarrisonNathan/what-is-manifolds-yield-curve?r=SGFycmlzb25OYXRoYW4
@Tumbles Not quite true. If you think someone will need to buy out for liquidity you could try and turn a profit. But mostly doesn't seem wise.
@ZviMowshowitz I sold my NO at 1% for a +4% election-related arbitrage opportunity, so I guess this eventuality came true.
@kottsiek Why not bet this market down instead? The change of this happening is basically 0. Maybe people think a random user has a 2% chance of misresolving. Or Manifold is just slightly inefficent.
@kottsiek Manifold is totally inefficient. One of many inefficiency mechanisms: profits and costs are rounded to the nearest M$, so you have to bet very large amounts of M$ to get any profit on markets with low/high probabilities.
Also, users do mis-resolve, or forget to resolve, or many other things.
@AdriaGarrigaAlonso I don't know about this rounding thing. Isn't that just an artifact of the UI? If I look at the API, profits balances are represented as floating-point.
@AdriaGarrigaAlonso forgeting to resolve will be fixed by the admins eventually (at most two weeks later in my experience) and two weeks should not really make a difference on such a long horizon.
@kottsiek Buying YES is definitely the more fun way! I had previously bought some low and sold it high to @EthanGlass (also thank for wishing me good luck @Gurkenglas). And honestly, I personally think another spike like that is totally possible:
@1941159478 Your market existing probably increased the odds by a lot. We'll see. What do you think is the "correct" annual risk free interest rate?
@kottsiek I guess I agree with @AdriaGarrigaAlonso that Manifold is just not that coherent. There's a bunch of markets with a resolution date way out in the future and an extreme probability. But also this:
@1941159478 The creator of the Trump rationalussy market hasn’t created any markets so it’s definitely not risk free, while this market is by someone who has a public image to uphold and I trust not to misresolve this type of market. I’d guess 10% is probably more accurate for the Trump market (actually I’ll go over and bet that up now).