This derivatives market will be evaluated by the average price of the Donald Trump yes over the 24 hours from 12:00am to 11:59pm on November 4, 2024, eastern time, of the 2024 US Presidential Election candidate market on Manifold created by @Jack.
If that market is removed or otherwise broken, an equivalent market at the top of the US Politics page will be used, or another market I announce.
Daily average is used to increase the cost of market manipulation.
1,000
3.00Closed now. Will resolve in 1-2 hours without objection to "49-50.9%" - the hourly price cost average for the past 24 hours is 49.18. @traders
@Naten8 How did you get the hourly price cost average? (Not disputing your result, trying to get the best resolution for my own market.)
@PatrickLV going thru the purchase log, hour by hour. Most hours all trades are at the same price - those when it changes I average. In this case, any minute-by-minute differences in calc wouldn't have changed the answer.
@traders Just under a half hour left. Want to note - the underlying @Jack market graph (at least for me) shows that Trump traded at 46% for a few hours 12-3:30p ET, but this is not correct based on the actual trades in the market (between 48 and 50%). I'm resolving this based off the actual trades. I'll close the market ~midnight ET and resolve quickly so everyone can be liquid for election day.
There's some major arbitrage between this market and my new one using the numerical format.
E.g. this market currently indicates it's ~35% likely that Jack's final market will put Trump between 50.0 and 59.9; my market currently indicates that's only ~7% likely!
(I've left such arbitrage on the table, in part, to encourage you to try out a numerical market!)