What will Lightcone's PnL be from running LessOnline?
3
36
780
resolved Mar 28
Resolved
NO
$0 to $1000
Resolved
NO
$1k to $10k
Resolved
NO
$10k to $50k
Resolved
NO
$50k to $100k
Resolved
NO
$100k to $250k
Resolved
NO
$250k to $500k
Resolved
NO
$500k to $1m
Resolved
NO
> $1m
Resolved
NO
-$1k to $0
Resolved
NO
-$10k to -$1k
Resolved
NO
-$50k to -$10k
Resolved
NO
-$100k to -$50k
Resolved
NO
-$250k to -$100k
Resolved
NO
-$500k to -$250k
Resolved
NO
-$1m to -$500k
Resolved
NO
< -$1m

LessOnline is a weekend conference in Berkeley, California for the extended rationalist+ blogosphere, where writers and readers from the internet can come and talk in person.

It's being run by Lightcone Infrastructure, the team that makes LessWrong.com.


This resolves to the PnL that Lightcone reports having made on this event on July 1st (1 month after the event is scheduled to take place).

If the event gets cancelled, it still resolves to the PnL of the event (as reported by Lightcone), which might not be 0.

PnL includes everything associated with the event except employee time (so, would include profits from donations, or losses incurred from lawsuits, or costs of additional external contractors hired for the event).

Two answers will be chosen iff they both apply (e.g. if the event makes exactly $10k in revenue, both "$1k to $10k" and "$10k to $50k" would resolve true).

(I don't have any reason to think this market could plausibly resolve "other")

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ10 $50k to $100k NO

I’ll have numeric markets out by this weekend that you could also use!

you may have wanted linked multiple choice, so they need to sum to one

if you want to fix it, duplicate this market and click 'one' under 'how many options will be chosen'

@jacksonpolack Okay, I've done this (and modified the resolution criteria to avoid triggering the corner case of multiple answers resolving true), link here. Sorry about that! https://manifold.markets/RickiHeicklen/what-will-lightcones-pnl-be-from-ru

Since every trader in this market bet "No", I've resolved all answers to "No" so as to close this question but not cause anyone to lose out on expected Mana. I hope this was a fine way of handling this.