What will be true about the highest profit earned from a single market in 2024?
12
1.1kṀ855
Jan 1
18%
Earned on a LK-99 related market
60%
Earned on a Presidential election related market
18%
Earned on a AI related market
22%
Such market's resolution will be controversial (I will use my judgement)
59%
Such market will have over 1.5k unique traders
12%
Earned by @JamesGrugett
6%
Earned by @SanghyeonSeo
12%
Earned by @Tumbles
16%
Earned by @jacksonpolack
16%
Earned by @SemioticRivalry
16%
Earned by @chrisjbillington
19%
Earned on a sport related market
23%
It'll be on a spam market (a binary market that has at least two others by the same creator that differ from it by at most one parameter - dates, amounts, object being focused etc)
50%
It will be in https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964

This market only counts realized profits. The profit displayed for each person after the market is resolved will be the basis for resolution.

Only markets that resolves in 2024 qualifies. Markets resolved before this market's creation don't qualify. (To accommodate markets that are meant to close in 2024 but takes a few days to resolve, I will count market that resolves earlier than Jan 7th, 2025. If a market for some reason could not get resolved earlier than Jan 7th due to some controversy, I will have to disqualify such market.)

I'll ignore bets placed to manipulate this market (with alt accounts, etc.) with fake profit. This market only considers realized profit on ranked markets with over 100 traders. unlisted, unsubsidized or unranked market's profit do not count.

Inspired by @Bayesian's market:

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