How will Manifold monetize its business, at the end of 2024?
Milk gambling addicts
Advertising markets to users (boosts, etc.)
Cosmetics (eg manachan, banners, etc.)
f2p p2w whale bait
subscription (manifold gold, etc.)
Information consumers pay for information (eg cost to make market)
Advertising products to users (ads on sidebar, etc.)

Which of these ways will manifold use to monetize its business, by EOY 2024? If they are used during 2024 and abandoned before the end, they still resolve YES.

"monetize the business" must involve an expectation of monetary gain.

currently, "boosts monetize the business bc if someone wanted to spend 100k on boosts they could by spending money to buy mana" would not resolve the market to YES.

Feel free to mention new avenues of revenue, so i can add them to the market. didn't want to let anyone add options to keep it to a low amount of fairly general and different options

If I bet on some option, and it ends up being contended, it will resolve to Mod opinion.

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Milk gambling addicts

Can you be more specific on what this means? Is just selling mana already doing this?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 i think current selling mana isn't enough. I don't have a great operationalization right now, but good question. open to suggestions

@Bayesian I think they removed the ability to buy large amounts of mana with one click and added a daily cap after the Whales vs Minnows crisis, right? If they removed those limits, that would be one sign.

A more obvious sign would be if they added some game of chance into the app for people to bet mana, but that's very unlikely.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 yeah, second thing would definitely count. also making sports gambling or some other form of gambling more prominent, + encouraging buying mana, would count. removing the mana purchase cap probably wouldn't be quite enough, unless the purpose is explicitly, or clearly, about making a few gambling addicts spend 10x more money or something

@FranklinBaldo hot take wow

bet replies don't work for some reason

@Bayesian I'm baffled about why Manifold, which has a superior product compared to most betting platforms, isn't putting more emphasis on sports betting.

@FranklinBaldo Agree. Sports brings out the best and worst in us but at least does not usually erode self-determination and justice on a grand scale. The manifold politics thing is cynical and self-serving. Ya sure, promote β€œeffective” altruism while normalizing the current state of affairs that if left to continue will make a lot of things less just. To put it gently.

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