What will Lightcone's PnL be from running LessOnline?
3
38
585
Jul 2
25%
$10k to $50k
8%
$50k to $100k
8%
-$50k to -$10k
5%
$100k to $250k
5%
$1k to $10k
5%
-$10k to -$1k
4%
$0 to $1000
4%
$250k to $500k
4%
$500k to $1m
4%
> $1m
4%
-$1k to $0
4%
-$100k to -$50k
4%
-$250k to -$100k
4%
-$500k to -$250k
4%
-$1m to -$500k
4%
< -$1m
4%
Other

LessOnline is a weekend conference in Berkeley, California for the extended rationalist+ blogosphere, where writers and readers from the internet can come and talk in person.

It's being run by Lightcone Infrastructure, the team that makes LessWrong.com.


This resolves to the PnL that Lightcone reports having made on this event on July 1st (1 month after the event is scheduled to take place).

PnL includes everything associated with the event except employee time (so, would include profits from donations, or losses incurred from lawsuits, or costs of additional external contractors hired for the event).

Corner cases:

> If the event gets cancelled, it still resolves to the PnL of the event (as reported by Lightcone), which might not be 0.


> Ranges "x to y" listed are inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper bound, so if the event makes exactly $10k in revenue, "$1k to $10k" would resolve false and "$10k to $50k" would resolve true.

> I don't have any reason to think this market could plausibly resolve "other," but keeping it here on priors that I have an insufficient imagination

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