In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Question

Superintelligent AGI: An AI system surpassing majority human intellect in most or all fields, capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across various tasks beyond single-domain specialization.

'Majority of AI researchers' refers to 51% or more of active, globally published AI researchers recognized by reputable sources such as established research organizations, academic journals, or comprehensive surveys. The market resolves when such a survey points to a year (even retrospectively) where most AI researchers agreed on the existence of AGI. Non-reputable or small-scale surveys will be disregarded.

If the survey indicates AGI was realized before the market's inception, the market resolves as N/A.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2031, followed by 2030 and 2029 are most likely. See the market for live updates (147 traders, as of Feb 26, 2026).