Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2026 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).
Questions with the same criteria:
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1 (this question)
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13
Numeric market:
/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors
Other reference points for fusion reactors:
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3
Other questions for 2026:
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61
/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2461b12d959d
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ebfceb8eefc5
/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-cbfe304a2ed7
/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-1760ddcaf500
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-e2cd2abbbed6
Engineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven
The fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.
Related questions
@DanielWallace not really playing for the mana, just like adding questions. Going down to the closest date is more to do with completeness. But hey 12 people voted on it in 24 hours so maybe other people agree 🤷
@DanielWallace my main goal is to flesh out the solar system exploration questions over time. Also going for completeness there despite the fact that people don't seem quite as interested in a crewed mission to pluto before 2025 😅
/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-p-11c9ccc36662
Think it's more to do with aesthetic value than anything else?
@DanielWallace aha just saw your comment on /SimoneRomeo/is-manifold-fair-closes-on-march-1
Think I understand what you're getting at. In my case I spend almost all my mana on new questions, and only place small bets on other markets. Not optimising for increasing net worth or influence on markets or anything
Getting more mana means it's possible to ask more questions.