Will the UK acquire a fusion reactor before 2031?
Basic
11
596
2031
17%
chance

Resolves as YES if a fusion reactor has been built in (or relocated to) the United Kingdom and has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2031 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).

Different countries:

/RemNi/will-the-usa-acquire-a-fusion-react

/RemNi/will-china-acquire-a-fusion-reactor

/RemNi/will-the-uk-acquire-a-fusion-reacto (this question)

/RemNi/will-nauru-acquire-fusion-reactors

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/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1

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/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6

Numeric market:

/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors

For the purpose of this question, the United Kingdom includes all its land and sea territory. A fusion reactor counts if it's controlled by the UK State, a local or foreign enterprise, or a foreign nation (but not a foreign nation's military). However, any construction, use, or ownership change must be freely approved by the UK. Reactors built or used without the permission of the United Kingdom, or by foreign military, do not qualify in the context of this question.

"The UK's land and sea territory" includes all of Great Britain, Northern Ireland, and the British Iles (excluding the Republic of Ireland). The British overseas territories and crown dependencies are considered to be part of the UK, except the Chagos Archipelago. The Falklands, South Georgia, South Sandwich Islands and the Isle of Man are considered to be part of the UK.

Engineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven

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