Will Nauru acquire a fusion reactor before 2031?
6
96
150
2031
12%
chance

Resolves as YES if a fusion reactor has been built in (or relocated to) Nauru and has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2031 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).

Different technologies:

/RemNi/will-nauru-acquire-nuclear-weapons

/RemNi/will-nauru-acquire-fusion-reactors (this question)

/RemNi/will-nauru-acquire-aircraft-carrier

/RemNi/will-nauru-acquire-a-hypersonic-mis

Different countries:

/RemNi/will-the-usa-acquire-a-fusion-react

/RemNi/will-china-acquire-a-fusion-reactor

/RemNi/will-the-uk-acquire-a-fusion-reacto

/RemNi/will-nauru-acquire-fusion-reactors (this question)

Fusion reactor questions:

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6

Numeric market:

/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors

For the purpose of this question, Nauru includes all its land and sea territory. A fusion reactor counts if it's controlled by the Nauruan State, a local or foreign enterprise, or a foreign nation (but not a foreign nation's military). However, any construction, use, or ownership change must be freely approved by Nauru. Reactors built or used without Nauru's permission, or by foreign military, don't qualify in the context of this question.

Engineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven

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In the year 2030, the global energy landscape was forever changed when the Republic of Nauru, a small island nation known for its limited natural resources and vulnerability to climate change, unveiled its groundbreaking achievement in sustainable energy: the successful development and activation of a fusion reactor. This momentous event marked Nauru's unexpected emergence as a pioneer in clean energy technology, challenging the prevailing perceptions of small island nations and their role in the global fight against climate change.

Driven by the urgent need to combat rising sea levels and mitigate their dependence on imported fossil fuels, Nauru embarked on a daring mission in the late 2020s. Leveraging its strategic position and the ingenuity of its people, Nauru secretly forged partnerships with a cadre of international experts in fusion technology. Under the pretense of constructing desalination plants, the nation began the development of its fusion reactor project, utilizing the latest advancements in magnetic confinement and deuterium-tritium fuel cycles.

The project was a gamble of unprecedented scale for Nauru, involving significant investment and the transformation of the island's infrastructure. The gamble paid off spectacularly. By early 2030, Nauru had achieved its first sustained plasma reaction, signaling the success of its fusion reactor and the beginning of a new era in renewable energy.

The international community, initially unaware of Nauru's ambitious project, was taken aback by the announcement. The successful deployment of fusion technology by such a small nation underscored the potential for decentralized, clean energy solutions and inspired a wave of innovation and cooperation across the globe.

Nauru's fusion reactor not only provided a virtually limitless source of clean energy for its own needs but also positioned the island as a beacon of hope and a model for sustainable development worldwide. The initiative sparked a renaissance in fusion research and development, catalyzing partnerships between nations and private entities eager to replicate Nauru's success.

@RemNi what an absurd question. Nauru has a population of about 10k people with a GDP of 130 M$.