Will China acquire a fusion reactor before 2031?
Mini
7
แน€363
2031
40%
chance

Resolves as YES if a fusion reactor has been built in (or relocated to) China and has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2031 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).

Different countries:

/RemNi/will-the-usa-acquire-a-fusion-react

/RemNi/will-china-acquire-a-fusion-reactor (this question)
/RemNi/will-the-uk-acquire-a-fusion-reacto

/RemNi/will-nauru-acquire-fusion-reactors

Fusion reactor questions:

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6

Numeric market:

/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors

For the purpose of this question, China includes all its land and sea territory. A fusion reactor counts if it's controlled by the Chinese State, a local or foreign enterprise, or a foreign nation (but not a foreign nation's military). However, any construction, use, or ownership change must be freely approved by China. Reactors built or used without the permission of China, or by foreign military, do not qualify in the context of this question.

"China's land and sea territory" includes all of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Tibet. Taiwan and contested territories in the South China Sea are not considered to be parts of China.

Engineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven

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