Poland and Lithuania's Defence Ministers have "said they are prepared to help Ukrainian authorities return men subject to military conscription to the country", according to the Guardian.
The purpose of this market is to predict whether something like that will happen.
Resolution criteria
Resolves 'Yes' if a Ukrainian citizen is deported from the EU for the purpose of forcing them into military conscription (or a similar scheme such as 'alternative civilian service') in Ukraine before the end of the war.
Only a deportation (or similar act) conducted by an institution of an EU member state, an institution of the EU, or someone acting with the explicit approval of such an institution counts for the purpose of resolving this market.
An act that is technically not a deportation but has the effect of making it effectively impossible for the victim to safely remain in the EU will be treated as a deportation even if the victim is able to escape to a third safe country.
A deportation (or similar removal) from one EU member state to another will not be treated as a deportation for the purpose of resolving this market.
It does not matter for the resolution of this market if the deportation (or similar act) is lawful.
Resolves 'No' if the war ends before the criteria for resolving 'Yes' occurs.
The war is considered to have ended when both the Russian and Ukrainian governments agree that the war is over, or when at least one of them no longer controls any territory.
I will not bet on this market.
1,000
3.00The most likely scenario for this that I can see is a Ukrainian citizen's passport expiring, at which point they are automatically no longer legally permitted to stay in whatever country they're staying. Said country can then deport them back to Ukraine. They are not doing this for the explicit purpose of getting them conscripted, but the outcome is the same.
@J00 Would such a scenario cause this market to resolve "YES"?