Resolution criteria

Ukrainian law bans presidential, parliamentary, and local elections under martial law. This market resolves YES if Ukraine holds any national elections (presidential or parliamentary) at any point during 2026. It resolves NO if no national elections are held during 2026.

Background

Martial law has been extended in 90-day intervals since the full-scale invasion with parliament's approval, and has most recently (as of November 2025) been extended for the 17th time until 3 February 2026. All political parties represented in the Verkhovna Rada signed a document in which they agreed to postpone holding any national election until after the end of martial law and agreed to work on a special law that would regulate the first post-war election, which would take place no earlier than six months after the cancellation of martial law.

Recent developments suggest elections in 2026 remain possible but uncertain. On 9 December 2025, after pressure from US President Donald Trump to hold elections, Zelenskyy said he was ready to hold elections in 60 to 90 days if the US and Ukraine's European allies ensured the necessary security. However, even if Kyiv begins preparations for a vote, it likely could not be held much earlier than March 2026, as the Verkhovna Rada will take several weeks to draft, submit and vote in a law allowing the election, and election authorities would then take several more weeks to approve all candidates and allow them to campaign.

Considerations

A September-October 2024 survey found that 60 percent of Ukrainians did not support elections under current wartime conditions, and by February 2025, this figure had risen slightly to 63 percent, with only 15 percent supporting elections during the war. With more than 5.9 million refugees abroad and 4.4 million people displaced within the country, updating and verifying voter registrations would be a huge task.