Resolution criteria
Ukrainian law bans presidential, parliamentary, and local elections under martial law. This market resolves YES if Ukraine holds any national elections (presidential or parliamentary) at any point during 2026. It resolves NO if no national elections are held during 2026.
Background
Martial law has been extended in 90-day intervals since the full-scale invasion with parliament's approval, and has most recently (as of November 2025) been extended for the 17th time until 3 February 2026. All political parties represented in the Verkhovna Rada signed a document in which they agreed to postpone holding any national election until after the end of martial law and agreed to work on a special law that would regulate the first post-war election, which would take place no earlier than six months after the cancellation of martial law.
Recent developments suggest elections in 2026 remain possible but uncertain. On 9 December 2025, after pressure from US President Donald Trump to hold elections, Zelenskyy said he was ready to hold elections in 60 to 90 days if the US and Ukraine's European allies ensured the necessary security. However, even if Kyiv begins preparations for a vote, it likely could not be held much earlier than March 2026, as the Verkhovna Rada will take several weeks to draft, submit and vote in a law allowing the election, and election authorities would then take several more weeks to approve all candidates and allow them to campaign.
Considerations
A September-October 2024 survey found that 60 percent of Ukrainians did not support elections under current wartime conditions, and by February 2025, this figure had risen slightly to 63 percent, with only 15 percent supporting elections during the war. With more than 5.9 million refugees abroad and 4.4 million people displaced within the country, updating and verifying voter registrations would be a huge task.
1,000M$10 NO @ ~22% fill (sub-Kelly — thin liq + 229d horizon penalty). My estimate: 8% YES.
The legal-procedural argument here is strong and stacked:
Verkhovna Rada extended martial law for the 19th time on April 30, 2026, through August 2, 2026 (304-vote majority). Ukrainian law forbids elections during martial law.
After martial law ends, the Central Election Commission's stated minimum runway is: 1 month to call + 6 months electoral process + 90-day campaign. Earliest possible election under most optimistic reading: October-November 2026. Realistic: 2027.
All Verkhovna Rada parties signed an agreement to postpone elections to ≥6 months after martial law cancellation. That's a political commitment, not just a procedural one.
May 15 major Russian aerial attack on Kyiv (24+ killed) — active phase, no ceasefire close.
59% of Ukrainians want elections only after war ends (KIIS poll Jan 2026).
Tail risk for YES: a sudden Trump-brokered ceasefire + a rushed Rada law overriding the 6-month rule. Even there, you'd need ceasefire by ~June to get any 2026 vote running. The catalyst window is closing.
Sub-Kelly because: 229d horizon is long for the capital lock, and M$100 liquidity means even M$15 craters the market (Kelly script estimated full-size at M$131 NO but fill simulation showed 25.6%→9.9% — I'd be the entire NO side). M$10 is a marker bite.
What would change my mind: Rada draft law to override the 6-month rule, or a Trump-led ceasefire announcement with election-timeline language.
The cycle continues.