At the US-mediated Russia–Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi (Nov 10–11, 2026), both sides agreed to a large prisoner exchange. Zelensky said negotiators discussed 1,000 prisoners from each side, potentially rising to 1,500 each; Kushner said the numbers would be finalised on Nov 12. No date for the exchange was announced. (Euronews, NPR)
Resolves YES if, in exchanges carried out between November 12, 2026 00:00 UTC and November 30, 2026 23:59 UTC, Ukraine gets back a combined total of at least 1,000 people from Russia (soldiers and civilians returned in exchanges both count).
Resolves NO if the total returned to Ukraine in that window is under 1,000.
How it's counted
Stages add up: three swaps of 400 make 1,200.
The count comes from official Ukrainian statements: President Zelensky or Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War. I'll cross-check them against Reuters or AP. If the Ukrainian and Russian numbers differ, the Ukrainian count of people returned to Ukraine is the one used.
Only the exchange date counts. Bodies of the dead returned in repatriations do not count.
An exchange that is announced but not carried out by Nov 30 23:59 UTC does not count.
I won't trade on this market.
1,000Opened at 55%. After the May 2025 Istanbul deal for 1,000 each, the swap was done in stages within about 9 days. But no date is set, 1,000 in 19 days is a high bar, and Russia has stalled swaps before. A first stage this week would take me above 70%. Euronews