Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Volodymyr Zelensky remains the officially recognized President of Ukraine continuously through 11:59:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.

If, prior to that cutoff, Zelensky ceases to hold the presidency for any reason—including resignation, impeachment, incapacity, defeat in a presidential election, replacement following an election, or death—this market resolves to NO.

Resolution will be verified using official announcements from the Ukrainian government, the Official Website of the President of Ukraine, or consensus reporting from major international news outlets (such as Reuters, BBC, or the Associated Press). Temporary medical incapacity where duties are transferred to an acting official will not count as leaving office unless Zelensky permanently vacates the presidency under Ukrainian constitutional procedure.

Background

Volodymyr Zelensky assumed office on May 20, 2019, following his victory in the 2019 presidential election. While a standard five-year presidential term would have concluded in May 2024, Ukrainian law and the Constitution restrict national elections during wartime. Under Article 19 of Ukraine's law "On the Legal Regime of Martial Law," holding presidential elections is prohibited while martial law remains in force, and Article 108 of the Ukrainian Constitution dictates that the sitting president continues to exercise authority until a newly elected successor is sworn in.

The continuation of Zelensky's tenure past 2026 depends heavily on the state of the war with Russia, extensions of martial law by the Verkhovna Rada, domestic and international diplomatic negotiations, and whether legal frameworks or security guarantees are established to permit elections.

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