• The bet will be considered POSITIVE if a frozen conflict is established in Ukraine by December 31st, 2024, similar to war in Donbass from 2015 to 2021. This is defined as:

  1. A formal or not formal ceasefire agreement is in place

  2. No major kinetic military operations, major shelling, or battles occur for a consecutive 3 month period

  3. Some Russian forces remain occupying parts of Ukraine

  4. Political resolution talks stall with no comprehensive peace deal

• The bet will be considered NEGATIVE if active fighting and major kinetic warfare in Ukraine continues to occur consistently throughout 2024, with no ceasefire longer than 2 months.

• If by December 31st, 2024, a definitive frozen conflict has not set in, but hostilities have also not ceased, the bet will be considered N/A.

Frozen conflict by EOY 2024 (you are here)

Frozen conflict by EOY 2025 link