This should capture common sense intuitions around "war ends before the end of 2026".
Resolves Yes if a formal peace agreement or armistice between Russia and Ukraine is signed before the end of 2026, and fighting between the major parties stops with no major flare-ups (>100 deaths) until the later of: the end of 2026, OR one month after it's signed.
Temporary ceasefires that are later broken do not resolve yes.
Temporary ceasefires that followed by a peace treaty do count, even if the treaty is signed after the end of '26, so long as fighting doesn't restart in the interim.
A full agreement before the end of 2026, followed by a new war starting after 2026 still resolves Yes.
Note: this means an agreement signed very late in 2026 must remain in effect for at least one month into 2027 for the market to resolve Yes.
Feel free to ask questions in the comments to clarify remaining ambiguities.
1,000People are also trading
@Lilemont A formal peace agreement or armistice between the two is signed before the end of 2026. Fighting between the major parties stops, without any major flare-ups (>100 dead) thereafter.
The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire, which is later broken, though a full agreement later followed by a new war (starting after the end of 2026) would resolve the market Yes.
Does that feel about in-line with the intuitions behind "war ends" to you? I'm open to shift things around to avoid plausible edge cases.
@spider How long does the peace have to last? Do we have to wait until the end of 2026 for a resolution, or would it resolve before then if there's a ceasefire that isn't broken for a while?
@EvanDaniel I think it's most in line with the market definition to say it needs to last until the later of
- end of 2026, or
- one month after it's signed
Does that feel right for you?
I think some people are misreading the title, an identical market is trading much higher https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-the-war-in-ukraine-end-before-0b0a5ac6c165