A temporary ceasefires is not enough to resolve Yes.
Update 2025-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves Yes only if a formal peace agreement or armistice between Russia and Ukraine is signed before the end of 2026, and fighting between the major parties stops with no major flare-ups (>100 deaths) thereafter.
Temporary ceasefires that are later broken do not count.
A full agreement before the end of 2026 followed by a new war starting after 2026 still resolves Yes.
1,000People are also trading
@Lilemont A formal peace agreement or armistice between the two is signed before the end of 2026. Fighting between the major parties stops, without any major flare-ups (>100 dead) thereafter.
The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire, which is later broken, though a full agreement later followed by a new war (starting after the end of 2026) would resolve the market Yes.
Does that feel about in-line with the intuitions behind "war ends" to you? I'm open to shift things around to avoid plausible edge cases.
I think some people are misreading the title, an identical market is trading much higher https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-the-war-in-ukraine-end-before-0b0a5ac6c165