Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if a ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is formally announced and takes effect by December 31, 2026. This includes any agreement that halts active hostilities, whether temporary or permanent, and regardless of whether it involves territorial concessions or security guarantees.

The market resolves NO if active fighting continues through the end of 2026 without a formal ceasefire or peace agreement taking effect.

For verification, resolution will be based on official announcements from the Ukrainian government, Russian government, or major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.).

Background

Russia launched a nearly 4-year-old invasion of Ukraine, with Russia currently occupying 20 percent of Ukraine's territory. Three rounds of talks between US, Ukrainian and Russian officials held in late January/February 2026 have not achieved a breakthrough, with the issue of ceding territory to Russia remaining a major sticking point in negotiations. Further talks in Geneva are scheduled for early March 2026.

2026 could mark a cessation of active hostilities, likely taking the form of a limited and fragile ceasefire rather than a comprehensive or sustainable peace. However, Russia's army is advancing in Ukraine and retains the upper hand in a war of attrition, with Putin remaining confident he can achieve a decisive breakthrough in 2026.

Considerations

Breaking the deadlock on key issues appears no closer as the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion approaches, with the main sticking point being the long-term fate of territory in eastern Ukraine. Russian officials increasingly consider there's no point continuing peace talks unless Kyiv is willing to cede territory, and Russia will likely walk away if Ukraine fails to make this concession. 69 percent of Ukrainians would support a peace plan that freezes the current front line with security guarantees, while 74 percent oppose plans involving troop withdrawals from Donbas or absence of concrete security guarantees.