There are reports that the German defense company Rheinmetall is negotiating the construction of a tank factory within Ukraine. It is reported to have received a go-ahead from German authorities for a joint venture with a Ukrainan company; the plan is said to be repairs first and production in Ukraine later on, possible of Fuchs APCs or Panther MBTs.
This market resolves yes if Rheinmetall or any other company from a NATO country is reported by credible sources to have produced a military vehicle in Ukraine by the end of 2025. The vehicle has to be intended for active combat use, so e.g. battle tanks or armored personnell carriers, but not ambulances or military trucks.
See also:
Update 2025-11-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Roshel Senator (a vehicle mentioned in discussion) would qualify as an APC for resolution purposes. The market will resolve Yes if there is confirmation that it has been produced in Ukraine in 2025, not just vague statements about "production started."
Update 2025-11-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator is waiting for additional confirmation beyond a single source stating production started two months prior before resolving YES. More information is expected given the remaining time until market close.
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@Dulaman Thanks. I'm no expert, but it seems the Roshel Senator can at least be used as an APC, so that it would qualify. Thus, if there's confirmation that it has been produced in Ukraine in 2025 (rather than just the vague "production started"), I'd resolve Yes.
it gave me this message to copy paste:
Per your note (“if there’s confirmation that the Roshel Senator has been produced in Ukraine in 2025 (rather than just ‘production started’), I’d resolve YES”), here are credible sources that meet that bar:
1) LIGA.net (Ukrainian business outlet) — explicitly says vehicles were already being produced for two months as of June 5, 2025:
“Канадська компанія Roshel Smart Armored Vehicles вже два місяці виробляє бронемашини на території України … ‘Підприємство було відкрите два місяці тому й тепер воно активно працює,’ — сказав Шимонов.”
(“Roshel … has been producing armored vehicles in Ukraine for two months … ‘The enterprise was opened two months ago and it is now actively operating,’ Shimonov said.”)
https://biz.liga.net/ua/all/all/novosti/v-ukraini-uzhe-dva-misiatsi-vyrobliaiut-bronemashyny-roshel
2) NV / The New Voice of Ukraine (English) — confirms production has launched and the facility has been open for two months and is fully operational (June 6, 2025):
“‘We … have already launched production in Ukraine’ … ‘The facility opened two months ago, and it is now fully operational.’”
https://english.nv.ua/nation/roshel-now-operates-factories-in-ukraine-50519938.html
3) Ukrinform (state news agency) — reports Roshel moved part of its production to Ukraine and deployed manufacturing (June 4, 2025):
https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/4000671-kanadskij-virobnik-bronemasin-rozgornuv-virobnictvo-v-ukraini.html
4) Foundation of the JV — Ukrinform (Feb 25, 2025) on UDI (Ukroboronprom) + Roshel agreement to jointly produce APCs in Ukraine:
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3964103-ukroboronprom-to-manufacture-roshel-armored-vehicles-using-canadian-technology.html
5) Qualifying as a “military vehicle intended for active combat use” — Ukraine’s MoD certified the Roshel Senator MRAP for army use (NV English, Sept 16, 2024):
https://english.nv.ua/nation/defense-ministry-certifies-canadian-armored-vehicle-for-army-use-50451370.html
Taken together: (1) is a mainstream business outlet explicitly stating “has been producing for two months” (so produced in 2025, not merely “planning”); (2) and (3) independently corroborate production launched and facility operational; (4) documents the JV basis; (5) confirms the Senator MRAP/APC fits the market’s “military vehicle” example set.
Given your criterion, this appears to satisfy “produced … in Ukraine in 2025” for a NATO‑country company (Canada). If you prefer an extra defense‑trade source echoing the same news, Militarnyi also reported the launch of in‑Ukraine production on June 5, 2025:
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/roshel-has-launched-production-of-armored-vehicles-in-ukraine/
here are recent, verified editorial photo sources that show Roshel Senator APC/MRAPs in frontline use in 2025. These are from major wire/photo agencies (Getty Images with Anadolu Agency credits), so they’re independently captioned and timestamped.
2025 frontline/editorial photos
Sumy Oblast (frontline damage) — “Windshield of a Ukrainian Army APC (Roshel Senator) destroyed by machine shooting… July 28, 2025.” (Andre Luis Alves/Anadolu via Getty)
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/windshield-of-a-ukrainian-army-apc-destroyed-by-machine-news-photo/2226726889 Getty ImagesSumy Oblast (mine damage) — “Ukrainian Army APC (Roshel Senator), wheels destroyed by mines in the field… July 28, 2025.” (Andre Luis Alves/Anadolu via Getty)
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ukrainian-army-apc-wheels-destroyed-by-mines-in-the-field-news-photo/2226726697 Getty ImagesDonetsk Oblast, Rodynske (Omega SSO) — “Ukrainian servicemen of the Special Operations Center ‘Omega’ load weapons… into the Roshel Senator… July 19, 2025.” (Getty)
https://www.gettyimages.pt/detail/fotografia-de-not%C3%ADcias/ukrainian-servicemen-of-the-special-operations-fotografia-de-not%C3%ADcias/2228762781 gettyimages.ptDonetsk Oblast, Druzhkivka (near the line) — “APC Roshel Senator … on the move… Oct 5, 2025.” (Getty)
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/daily-life-in-druzkhivka-an-industrial-city-in-donetsk-news-photo/2239069568
@Dulaman I assume this will resolve yes, but I'd like some more confirmation than one source saying production had started two months previously. There's still plenty of time to see more information.
@PS I've sold out of this market because I'm a bit concerned about how this can go, but I think the current sources are insufficient and really what you need is reporting showing a finished vehicle.