Will a company from a NATO country build a tank in Ukraine by 2026?
Will a company from a NATO country build a tank in Ukraine by 2026?
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There are reports that the German defense company Rheinmetall is negotiating the construction of a tank factory within Ukraine. It is reported to have received a go-ahead from German authorities for a joint venture with a Ukrainan company; the plan is said to be repairs first and production in Ukraine later on, possible of Fuchs APCs or Panther MBTs.
This market resolves yes if Rheinmetall or any other company from a NATO country is reported by credible sources to have produced a military vehicle in Ukraine by the end of 2025. The vehicle has to be intended for active combat use, so e.g. battle tanks or armored personnell carriers, but not ambulances or military trucks.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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