When will Russia's offensive in Ukraine end?
5
130Ṁ3512026
1%
January 2025
1%
February 2025
1%
March 2025
6%
April 2025
6%
May 2025
6%
June 2025
6%
July 2025
6%
August 2025
6%
September 2025
6%
October 2025
6%
November 2025
6%
December 2025
38%
After 2025
Resolves as soon as Russia is unable to gain more territory in Ukraine than it loses for an entire month in 2025, according to https://www.understandingwar.org or another reputable source, if the Institute for the Study of War ceases to post updates on the Ukraine war. If Russia somehow manages to continuously gain territory throughout the entirety of 2025, the market resolves to "After 2025".
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It looks like, for the first time in more than a year, Russia recently did not gain any territory for a single day. While this is probably still an outlier, there's no denying that the tempo is decreasing. A month-long ceasefire would also result in the market resolving.
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