How many months from June 2022 will it take for Starship to reach orbit and safely land?
Technology
4
5
resolved Jul 10
Resolved
N/A
Note that if the vehicle has a RUD shortly after landing, I will resolve to that number of months iff Scott Manly says the RUD was not caused by the landing
Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

4 Comments
3 Trades
Sort by:
Resolving N/A to move to new numeric markets. Please go to https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/how-many-months-from-june-2022-will-8ef3ce651194
Thanks for the explanation. Definitely needs work.
bought Ṁ40 of
The "expected value" is non-intuitive. Current bets are 0, 5, & 3 so naturally expected value is 37. Can someone explain this or is it a bug?
@TANSTAAFL It's because the proposed range by the creator was set to be from 0 to 200. The initial liquduity (M$100) is then distributed amongst these. So, there is still small amount of mana in every "bucket" of all the larger values, which is driving the expected value up. Admittedly this probably isn't optimally and we are currently in the process of thinking about how to update Numeric Markets.

Related in Technology

See more Technology questions

More related questions