Unfortunate that this market depends on Scott Alexander's interpretation of orbit, tbh

Wait, this market says "by 2028" and closes at the end of 2028, but the conditional you linked says "before 2028" and closes at the end of 2027. Did you mean to include 2028?

@Mqrius Thanks for pointing this out - this is meant to resolve only and exactly on the basis of the linked markets. I have changed the title and close date to reflect this.

This market is out of whack with https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-b?r=SmFja3NvbldhZ25lcg

The last launch window for Mars that could arrive by 2030 is Q4 2028 / Q1 2029. So, the market linked above would, on the bright side, include that last bit of the final launch window that peeks into Q1 2029. BUT, that other market also requires the totally-untested 8-month deep-space cruise and mars reentry & landing to be successful! On top of that, it doesn't have the "conditional on success in 2023" factor. So, if anything, IMO that market should have a significantly lower probability than this one!

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?

61% chance. From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/ Closes Aug 1, 2024. Expected to resolve around Jan 1, 2030. Close date updated to 2029-12-31 11:59 pm