How many Starship launches will there be in 2024?
➕
Plus
39
Ṁ31k
Dec 31
98%
2-4
99%
3-5
99%
4-6
1%
5-7
1.2%
6+
Resolved
NO
0-2
Resolved
NO
1-3

Trying out a new format

Resolves to all true answers

Launch is defined as: countdown reaches zero on a launch attempt and engines ignition

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https://x.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1859956046837465161
Chris Bergen re FT7
I was thinking Feb, but now edged into Jan as possible.

Poll suggests 15% think December, but are these crazy fans rather than realistic estimate?

1-3 can resolve no now there have been 4


4-6 is pretty certain too.

sold Ṁ47 YES

0-2 can resolve no now there have been 3

filled a Ṁ80 YES at 75% order

Does the First Launch resolve 0-2, and 1-3?

@notarealuser

No. The question will resolve at the end of the year to what is true then.

@JoshuaWilkes One option or all true Answers?

@notarealuser all true answers

(This is in the description)

@JoshuaWilkes ik. but i was confused if the lower range voided the option or not

@notarealuser I don't really understand. But hopefully it's clear now?

@JoshuaWilkes yes. thanks

What is your definition of a 'starship'?

In my mind a 'ship' can carry people, and landers/rovers/probes and not 'ships', even if they (say) get a machine from Earth to Mars. Do they count as 'ships' to you?

And a 'starship' perhaps implies being able to go to another star-system, as opposed to merely travelling within our own solar system. (But I gather you don't intend that?)

@JoshuaWilkes - Ah, it is a branded proper noun, got it.

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