Manifold Live's Episode 6 will air Sunday afternoon 1/14 at 2 Pacific with special guests @MarcusAbramovitch. and @Domer.
You can watch the show live on Twitch, join the audience in the Manifold Discord, or watch the recordings on Youtube.
Marcus and Domer are two of the best traders out there, consistently topping the Manifold and Polymarket leaderboards. During the show we'll be discussing markets they're interested in and seeing if we can set up any big live bets between them. I think most of their overlapping interest is in the US presidential election, but we're always open to topic suggestions!
In this market, you can predict anything that will happen on the show. You can then watch the show as it airs, and bet on this market as you see predictions come true!
You can suggest markets to bet on, questions to ask the guests, or anything else that would make for a fun show. Unhelpful submissions may be N/A-ed, while particularly good suggestions may win mana prizes.
Finally, if you want to suggest future guests for the show and hear about new episodes you can do so at /Joshua/who-will-appear-on-manifold-live-ou and follow the show's account here.
1,000
3.00Timing confirmed with everyone, starts 2 PM PT. Get your suggestions in! Also a lot of these are really high, no way we get to them all. Probably profit to be made betting some options down!
@Joshua @MarcusAbramovitch oh man. How hard can it be to refrain for one afternoon from saying "rationalussy." I'll throw in a light-up souvenir, Soviet-era, Euro plug, never used, of the statue "Savior Of The Motherland" purchased in Volgograd 1989 ,by me, if you don't say it. They are burning a hole in my pocket. Did I say "pocket"? I meant, the closet under the stairs. It can be yours @MarcusAbramovitch all yours. Just exercise a little self-discipline.
@ClubmasterTransparent @Joshua @MarcusAbramovitch money can't buy this. Cord obvi never uncoiled. Tsaritsyn, Stalingrad, Volgograd 400th anniversary, pretty sure Volgograd GUM is where I bought it.
@Joshua @MarcusAbramovitch "rationalussy" was not heard by me. Please provide by Monday night address to whish to ship this unique, priceless treasure otherwise I'll find another connoisseur who appreciates it
while particularly good suggestions may mana prizes.
@Joshua This should say "may win mana prizes" (emphasis added).
I'll preface this by saying that I respect @Domer a lot. I respect a lot of traders out there. But I think Domer is particularly good. If he suggests a probability, that will update me towards it. But I'm still willing to get mana or $ down against him. Let me know if anyone can think of things we disagree on regarding probabilities.
@MarcusAbramovitch Some people have impressive scripts. Maybe someone can query the list of markets where you have opposing positions?
@marktwse Most of Domer's positions are on polymarket but I've been checking manually and adding stuff I think they might want to bet on.