Manifold: Live! Episode 3 - Sun 12/17 @ 2 PM PT - What will we ask @chrisjbillington?
13
1.9kṀ14k
resolved Dec 17
Resolved
YES
How did you get into forecasting by pretending to be an epidemiologist on Twitter?
Resolved
YES
What can you tell us about recent user acquisition & retention trends, as well as longer-term forecasts, and their effects?
Resolved
YES
Who will win the Masters league? Currently it seems to be pretty close race.
Resolved
YES
How much success on Manifold depends on being good trader vs good forecaster?
Resolved
YES
If you could magically change one habit/belief/trait/tendency of the average Masters-rank user, what would it be?
Resolved
YES
[BINGO: 5 Audience-Submitted suggestions resolve yes]
Resolved
YES
How are you so good?? How do I become like you 😭
Resolved
YES
So what actually /is/ LK-99?
Resolved
YES
How does your location and timezone affect your perspective, efforts, and outcomes relative to the average user?
Resolved
YES
What are the biggest factors that affect how many markets are mispriced? What’s best way for non-physicists and non-coders to spot them?
Resolved
YES
As a no holder, the FUH step market scares me. Can Chris please soothe my fears?
Resolved
YES
[5 of my questions here resolve YES 😂 including this one]
Resolved
YES
If you had to assign the average Manifold user some required reading, what would it be?
Resolved
NO
How much effort have you put into your Manifold User Stats code at this point?
Resolved
NO
Now that there’s reposts, who are your top follows?
Resolved
NO
Australian politics markets
Resolved
NO
What prediction of yours are you most proud of in retrospect?
Resolved
NO
According to @eliza comments you have access to a magic Excel spreadsheet which, if made Manifold-public, would give all traders more visibility into user engagement. Should I trust them on that?

Manifold Live's Episode 3 will air live Sunday afternoon 12/17 at 2 Pacific with special guest @chrisjbillington

Chris is one of the best traders on the site, with a lot of big investments in LK-99, SpaceX, and User Engagement markets.

If we ask Chris a question submitted to this market, I'll resolve that option to yes!

Audience Prizes:

  • 500 mana to the best suggestion which resolves Yes

  • 500 mana to the best suggestion that resolves No

  • Arbitarary other prizes for good audience-ing

Watch the show on:

You can watch the show as it airs, and bet on this market and others as you see topics come up!

I will allow myself a budget of 100 mana to make token bets on options here, and will request that @NcyRocks do the same to avoid any perverse incentives. 

If you'd like to be notified about the show on Manifold, I suggest watching/betting on our guest market:

Who will appear on "Manifold: Live!", our weekly show for the Manifold Community Fund initiative?

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You can also follow the Manifold Dashboard for the show and follow the show's account here.

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