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The first round has been chosen! Bet on which will have the most incrase in volume here:

Also if you think I should be tracking something besides volume, please let me know!

Tuberculosis seems an extremely important issue.

From https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tuberculosis

• A total of 1.6 million people died from TB in 2021 (including 187 000 people with HIV). Worldwide, TB is the 13th leading cause of death and the second leading infectious killer after COVID-19 (above HIV and AIDS).

• In 2021, an estimated 10.6 million people fell ill with tuberculosis (TB) worldwide. Six million men, 3.4 million women and 1.2 million children. TB is present in all countries and age groups. But TB is curable and preventable.

• Multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) remains a public health crisis and a health security threat. Only about 1 in 3 people with drug resistant TB accessed treatment in 2021.

• An estimated 74 million lives were saved through TB diagnosis and treatment between 2000 and 2021.

• US$ 13 billion is needed annually for TB prevention, diagnosis, treatment and care to achieve the global target agreed at the 2018 UN high level-meeting on TB.

• Ending the TB epidemic by 2030 is among the health targets of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

@AlexbGoode All deaths from TB are preventable.

I like this! Will definitely consider for round 2.

The market is not buying up the Fed Pivot market despite me saying I was interested in it, so I might interpret that as this market being uninteresting. If I drop that one and add the ukraine and rideshare markets, then the first four would be:

@Joshua nice!

@Joshua I'm finalizing my decision on these 4 being the first, though I like many other markets that were also submitted here! Buy them up to 25% before I close!

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/before-2028-will-any-prediction-mar

This is something we sorely need, and I'd like to see people incentivized to figure out a solution.

I like this category of suggestion! It'd be cool if some of these subsidies could directly cause people to try to make markets like that one resolve yes.

@Joshua Rather than subsidize it via adding liquidity, you could place a large limit order on NO, encouraging people to find ways to make it resolve YES.

In fact I've gone ahead and done just that. I'd love it if other people wanted to join in.

Just added one :)

I like that one!

I think I'm going to let this market continue for at least a few more hours, and then resolve it either before I go to bed or in the morning.

Thanks for all the submissions! Starting to look thorough them now.

Here is a linke to a google doc which has my comments on all submissions so far. Currently, I'm favoring the following three markets:

https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-we-find-strong-evidence-for-ex\

https://manifold.markets/DanMan314/when-will-fed-pivot-lower-interest

https://manifold.markets/evergreenemily/five-years-after-the-development-of

Open to arguments against, but I'd like to get moving on this! Still hoping somone submits a fourth candidate that's better than all the other candidates so far.

Just added another option which caught my eye:

I'm not super familiar with the current state of ukraine war markets though, so would def like to hear people's thoughts on it.

@Joshua The question is very important indeed. I’m not very happy about the resolution criterium. It could easily turn into a market about Wikipedia instead if Ukraine.

In general, it is tricky to define when a war “ends”. Or “starts”. The phrasing on Wikipedia seems to be that the “war” started in 2014 and the “invasion” in 2021.

A related question: /marktweise/what-will-i-track-while-subsidizing

I submitted my aliens market. The reason I think it should be subsidized is that it serves as a useful "is it really aliens" check whenever there's some news about a new discovery that might be aliens. I'm excited to see how it shakes up now that JWST is looking for biosignatures.

@Morch you seem very confident that my first two ideas are very bad 😂

I love fivethirtyeight but the maintenance of its poll aggregates and forecasts is very uncertain, given change in ownership. Would recommend against subsidizing that one.

Interesting! I hadn't thought Nate leaving would have a big impact on the polling averages, do you think they've been worse compared to previous years?

@Joshua well, they've stopped updating/maintaining the sports models, and currently manifold markets think it's quite possible (30%) that ABC offloads the politics models this year as well? I also think they might change in methodology with new management (Elliott Morris) who has a different philosophy on poll inclusion than Nate.

Ohhh is Morris making decisions now? Yeah I don't know how much I trust Morris after 2020...