This market resolves as YES if the Climate Clock officially hits zero on or before December 31, 2029. Otherwise, this market resolves as NO on January 1, 2030.

As of market creation (July 31, 2023), the Climate Clock shows a deadline of 5 years and 355 days for it to be possible to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C or lower. This means that, absent of any changes, the clock should officially hit zero in July of 2029. It could hit zero earlier if climate feedback loops are triggered soon, or later if there are coordinated international efforts to reduce the extent of warming by the end of this decade.

I specify officially hitting zero for a reason; graphical glitches or hacks are not sufficient for a YES resolution. The organization behind the Climate Clock must put out a press release or other official statement claiming that the clock has hit zero.