Resolves to the range containing the first year in which the number of deaths is lower than the previous year. Reporting appears to be somewhat delayed, so this probably will not resolve until a couple of years after it actually happens.
If there is no decrease in the number of deaths through 2040, this resolves to "2041 or later".
Data source to be used for resolution remains to be determined. I'll likely use official government statistics, but if there's some reason to believe another data set is more reliable I may change this. Since this may involve some amount of judgement, I will not bet in this market.
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This has occurred between 2023 and 2024.
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2025/20250514.htm
@snazzlePop thanks!
At a glance, it looks like these numbers are estimates based on preliminary numbers. The drop is quite large across all categories of drugs, which makes me want to dig in a bit before relying on the estimated numbers to resolve.
I probably won't have time to do that til later this week. If you're desperate for your mana back faster you can see if a mod is willing to take a look at it.
@snazzlePop Sorry it took me so long to get around to this.
I wanted to see historically how the provisional numbers and predictions compare to the final numbers. I didn't really succeed at this.
I downloaded the data from https://data.cdc.gov/National-Center-for-Health-Statistics/VSRR-Provisional-Drug-Overdose-Death-Counts/xkb8-kh2a/about_data; that page says "Counts for the most recent final annual data are provided for comparison", but the CSV doesn't appear to actually contain these.
On the page https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm#notes, Table 4 is "Difference between final and provisional drug overdose death counts by year and jurisdiction", but upon reading the text closely, it turns out that the "provisional" data are actually more up to date than the "final" data, because the provisional data continue to receive updates after the final data are frozen. So this isn't a good baseline to understand how accurate the 2024 provisional data or predictions are.
The only comparison I could find between projected numbers and eventual results is in
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrr/NVSS-methods-drug-adjustment.pdf, specifically on 12-month-ending January 2017 data. The accuracy seems to vary somewhat; in aggregate for the US it was off by 1.2% but for some jurisdictions the difference was much higher. Given the variation I'm rather curious how the predictions performed for different years. Oh well.
In any case: the drop seems much larger than could likely be explained by preliminary data undercounting / error in the predictions for the final data, and the news media (and the experts they're interviewing) seem to have no doubt that this is real, so I'll go ahead and resolve.
@jcb That was a high-quality comment.
This one, not so much.š
Iām impressed by your digging-in and follow-up response. Excellent market management. Kudos, and Followed. š