When will US deaths from fentanyl decline?
4
205Ṁ1294resolved May 31
100%99.0%
2022-2025
0.3%
2026-2030
0.2%
2031-2035
0.2%
2036-2040
0.2%
2041 or later
Resolves to the range containing the first year in which the number of deaths is lower than the previous year. Reporting appears to be somewhat delayed, so this probably will not resolve until a couple of years after it actually happens.
If there is no decrease in the number of deaths through 2040, this resolves to "2041 or later".
Data source to be used for resolution remains to be determined. I'll likely use official government statistics, but if there's some reason to believe another data set is more reliable I may change this. Since this may involve some amount of judgement, I will not bet in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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