Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Question

Will autonomous or self-driving rideshares exceed that of human-driven rideshares (like Uber or Lyft) by Jan 1st, 2030 in the United States?

I will evaluate this by examining metrics such as total mileage, total revenue from rides, and number of rides driven.  It's possible that due to the changing modality of rideshares, some of these metrics may make more or less sense than others and want to leave this option open to resolve the market in the spirit of the question.  I will consult subject matter experts if necessary.

Hopefully this will be fairly easy or obvious to resolve, but if it's actually way too close to call, or due to a number of metrics diverging, I reserve the right to resolve at 50%.

I will not bet in this market due to the somewhat subjective resolution criteria.  If autonomous driving passes human-driven rideshares before the close date, and it's obvious that the trend will not reverse, I may resolve early.

EDIT 10/3/23: @Joshua has added a Ṁ1000 subsidy to this market (thank you Joshua!)

EDIT 10/3/23: just realized @PC has ALSO added a Ṁ500 subsidy to this market (thank you PC!)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 47% chance (46 traders, as of Jul 21, 2026).