Financial market pricing 2.5% chance of July cut, 94.5% chance of September cut. This may overstate things slightly, because I suppose there is theoretically some chance of a 50bp or greater cut in September, but that seems pretty remote. Certainly, pricing higher than Manifold.

financial markets pricing 79% probability of a cut by 9/18 meeting

European Central Bank signals it will begin to cut rates

https://www.semafor.com/article/04/11/2024/european-central-bank-signals-it-will-begin-to-cut-rates

Q4 or never: christmas is coming, they need those numbers for election purposes. Amazon and the retail sector will throw a shitfit if they don't, but when everyone said they'd lower at the last three meetings, I said they'd raise or hold.

If anything they're gonna raise right before Q4, so they can say they lowered in Q4, when the net outcome will be a virtual hold.

Between deflationary bust and eye-gouging inflation, after the last three meetings which I called despite the market saying otherwise, we can safely say they'll choose inflation, hell they'll choose rationing under hyperinflation, before they choose to lower.

@traders a version by meeting instead of by quarter:

2024 FOMC Meeting

• January 2024: January 30-31

  Statement: PDF | HTML
  Implementation Note
  Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy

• RATES: HOLD

  --

• NEXT MEETINGS:

  • March 19-20 (End of Q1)

  • Apr/May 30-1

  • June 11-12 (End of Q2)

  • July 30-31

  • September 17-18 (End of Q3)

  • November 6-7

  • December 17-18 (End of Q4)

Those of you voting Q1 2024 ; Are you in the January meeting or the March meeting camp, for them to lower the rate?

@SirCryptomind Arbitrate with
/marktwse/fed-interest-rate-decision-in-janua
/marktwse/fed-interest-rate-decision-in-march

@marktwse Nice, thanks for linking those!
Can I add your January 31st to my January Leaderboard ?

@SirCryptomind march, but I am just playing a discount to CME futures. I had a very strong hawkish bias over the last 2 years and it's hard to overcome that.

JPow admitted they are talking about cutting and absent any substantial shock to the upside, I'd expect inflation to continue to moderate

@MP I'm still sticking with my June or July for the first cut.

If it is June than we get 3 cuts (June/September/December).
If it is July, than we get 2 (July & November).

The stock market is crazy wrong I believe right now, it has a projection of 6 cuts in 2024 from CNBC Data from this past Friday.
Q2 may be possible. I just cant fathom anything for Q1 2024 unless it is to signal a possible recession after Q4 2023 data comes in.

SOURCE

@traders

SOURCE (Reuters)

"A March rate cut is premature and market's have priced in too quickly, says IBM's Gary Cohn"

SOURCE

SOURCE (CNBC Mobile Alerts)

As a follow-up: /marketwise/gdp-of-the-usa-for-2024-if-the-fed

For Q1 2024 there are two FOMC meetings:
/marketwise/fed-interest-rate-decision-in-janua
/marketwise/fed-interest-rate-decision-in-march