When will the FED pivot (lower interest rates)?
106
2.2k
7.2k
2026
52%
Q3 2024
25%
Q4 2024
18%
2025 and beyond
5%
Q2 2024
0.2%
Q1 2024
0.1%
Q4 2023
0.1%
Q3 2023
0.1%
Q2 2023

FED pivot being any lowering of the target federal funds range (interest rates).

This market will resolve to the quarter that the Fed decides to decrease interest rates.


Resolves based on https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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Q4 or never: christmas is coming, they need those numbers for election purposes. Amazon and the retail sector will throw a shitfit if they don't, but when everyone said they'd lower at the last three meetings, I said they'd raise or hold.

If anything they're gonna raise right before Q4, so they can say they lowered in Q4, when the net outcome will be a virtual hold.

Between deflationary bust and eye-gouging inflation, after the last three meetings which I called despite the market saying otherwise, we can safely say they'll choose inflation, hell they'll choose rationing under hyperinflation, before they choose to lower.

@traders a version by meeting instead of by quarter:

bought Ṁ90 of Q2 2024 YES

2024 FOMC Meeting

Those of you voting Q1 2024 ; Are you in the January meeting or the March meeting camp, for them to lower the rate?

@marktwse Nice, thanks for linking those!
Can I add your January 31st to my January Leaderboard ?

@SirCryptomind march, but I am just playing a discount to CME futures. I had a very strong hawkish bias over the last 2 years and it's hard to overcome that.

JPow admitted they are talking about cutting and absent any substantial shock to the upside, I'd expect inflation to continue to moderate

@MP I'm still sticking with my June or July for the first cut.

If it is June than we get 3 cuts (June/September/December).
If it is July, than we get 2 (July & November).

The stock market is crazy wrong I believe right now, it has a projection of 6 cuts in 2024 from CNBC Data from this past Friday.
Q2 may be possible. I just cant fathom anything for Q1 2024 unless it is to signal a possible recession after Q4 2023 data comes in.

bought Ṁ10 of Q3 2024 YES

@traders

SOURCE (Reuters)

"A March rate cut is premature and market's have priced in too quickly, says IBM's Gary Cohn"

SOURCE

SOURCE (CNBC Mobile Alerts)